Crotone 0-1 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crotone at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crotone vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 14 as Crotone welcome Vicenza Virtus to Stadio Ezio Scida. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Crotone have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crotone's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 2L across 7 games at Stadio Ezio Scida this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vicenza Virtus — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 6L across 7 road games this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Crotone) versus 0.40 (Vicenza Virtus). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Crotone trading profile (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Vicenza Virtus trading profile (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crotone 62% versus Vicenza Virtus 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crotone 54% | Vicenza Virtus 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crotone 1.66 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crotone attack 0.945 / defence 1.395 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.811 / defence 1.730. League average goals — home 1.015 / away 1.158. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.730 — this is suppressing Crotone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Crotone games / 13 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crotone 45% | Draw 26% | Vicenza Virtus 29%. Fair-value odds: Crotone 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Vicenza Virtus 3.45. Crotone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crotone are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crotone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Crotone 71% | Vicenza Virtus 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crotone vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Ezio Scida • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crotone 45% | Draw 26% | Vicenza Virtus 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Crotone 1.66 / Vicenza Virtus 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Crotone attack 0.945 / def 1.395 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.811 / def 1.730 | league avg home 1.015 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Crotone (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Crotone xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Vicenza Virtus xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crotone vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Crotone vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What was the final score in Crotone vs Vicenza Virtus?
Crotone 0 - 1 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Crotone vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What competition is Crotone vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Crotone vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Crotone vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Crotone a 45% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crotone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Crotone and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Crotone vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crotone and Vicenza Virtus in?
Crotone (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crotone's attack rating (0.94) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.73), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Crotone's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crotone Win
45%
2.25
26%
3.81
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Crotone xG
Total xG
2.97
1.31
Vicenza Virtus xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
6%
17.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crotone vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Crotone and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Crotone and 1.31 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Crotone vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Crotone have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 1W 5D 7L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 1W 1D 11L from 13 games, 0.31 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crotone on 0.62 PPG, Vicenza Virtus on 0.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Crotone have posted 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L).
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 0D 6L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crotone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crotone are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 0.92 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crotone have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crotone
Blended
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crotone and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Crotone have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 11L in their last 13 (0.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crotone at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Crotone's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crotone at home: 1.00 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crotone
1
Draws
1
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Vicenza Virtus?
From 2 meetings on record, Crotone have won 0, Vicenza Virtus have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crotone and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 1-1 Crotone.
Who has won more matches between Crotone and Vicenza Virtus?
Vicenza Virtus have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crotone 71%, Vicenza Virtus 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Crotone and 71% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crotone have failed to score in 29% of games; Vicenza Virtus in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crotone home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crotone play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Crotone's games and 57% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crotone vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Crotone's matches and 71% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Crotone and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Crotone have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vicenza Virtus defy the odds to beat Crotone 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vicenza Virtus beat Crotone 0-1 at Stadio Ezio Scida, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crotone 1.66 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.31 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crotone fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crotone attack 0.94 / defence 1.40 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.81 / defence 1.73, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crotone 45% | Draw 26% | Vicenza Virtus 29%, with Crotone to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Vicenza Virtus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crotone 54%, Vicenza Virtus 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crotone's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crotone 0.62 PPG, Vicenza Virtus 0.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vicenza Virtus win broke the near-deadlock. Crotone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.