Crotone 2-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pisa at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crotone vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pisa make the trip to Stadio Ezio Scida to face Crotone in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Crotone's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 4D 3L from 7 games (0.57 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 2.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.14 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Crotone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crotone's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 1L across 4 games at Stadio Ezio Scida this term (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pisa (all games): 6W 1D 0L across 7 Serie B outings this term — 2.71 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.14 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.57 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 road games this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Pisa arrive in superior form — a 2.14 PPG advantage (2.71 vs 0.57) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Crotone register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Pisa in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Crotone — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
Pisa — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Crotone 71% and Pisa 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crotone 71% | Pisa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crotone 1.15 xG and Pisa 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crotone attack 0.949 / defence 1.366 | Pisa attack 1.185 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.338. Data: 7 Crotone games / 7 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crotone 19% | Draw 22% | Pisa 60%. Fair-value odds: Crotone 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Pisa 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Pisa (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crotone 75% | Pisa 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crotone vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Ezio Scida • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crotone 19% | Draw 22% | Pisa 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Crotone 1.15 / Pisa 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Crotone attack 0.949 / def 1.366 | Pisa attack 1.185 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Pisa (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Crotone xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Pisa xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crotone vs Pisa kick off?
Crotone vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What was the final score in Crotone vs Pisa?
Crotone 2 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Crotone vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What competition is Crotone vs Pisa part of?
Crotone vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Crotone vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Crotone a 19% chance of winning, Pisa a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Crotone and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Crotone vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crotone and Pisa in?
Crotone (all comps): 0W-4D-3L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 2.14 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Pisa (all comps): 6W-1D-0L in 7 | 2.71 PPG | GF 2.14 / GA 0.57 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Crotone's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.19x) against Crotone's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 2.17.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
19%
5.34
22%
4.63
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
0 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Crotone xG
Total xG
3.32
2.17
Pisa xG
5.34
19%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
11%
8.72
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
2%
46.62
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crotone vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Crotone and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Crotone and 2.17 for Pisa, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Crotone vs Pisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Crotone have picked up 0.57 PPG on a 0W 4D 3L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Crotone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa's form line: 6W 1D 0L from 7 games, 2.71 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 2.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crotone.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crotone have posted 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crotone are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 2.14 scored and 0.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crotone have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Pisa in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crotone
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crotone and Pisa in coming into this match?
Crotone have gone 0W 4D 3L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Pisa have gone 6W 1D 0L in their last 7 (2.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crotone at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crotone at home: 0.67 PPG; Pisa away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Crotone or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crotone have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pisa in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Crotone
0
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Crotone have won 1, Pisa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crotone and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2022, when Pisa 3-2 Crotone.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Crotone, 100% for Pisa — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Crotone and 67% for Pisa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crotone have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crotone home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crotone play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Crotone's games and 100% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crotone vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Crotone's matches and 67% of Pisa's.
Do Crotone and Pisa tend to score early?
Crotone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pisa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crotone defy the odds to beat Pisa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crotone beat Pisa 2-1 at Stadio Ezio Scida, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crotone 1.15 xG and Pisa 2.17 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Crotone beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crotone attack 0.95 / defence 1.37 against Pisa attack 1.19 / defence 1.13, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crotone 19% | Draw 22% | Pisa 60%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Crotone win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crotone 71%, Pisa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crotone's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.71 PPG against 0.57. Form was overturned, with Crotone winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crotone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.