Crotone 3-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crotone vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 36 as Crotone welcome Cremonese to Stadio Ezio Scida. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crotone stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crotone have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio Ezio Scida — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Cremonese's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Cremonese's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Crotone's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Crotone, 1 for Cremonese and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 2–3 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Crotone in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cremonese in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crotone 60% versus Cremonese 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crotone 46% | Cremonese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crotone 0.98 xG and Cremonese 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crotone attack 0.869 / defence 1.214 | Cremonese attack 0.968 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.073. Data: 35 Crotone games / 35 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crotone 26% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 41%. Fair-value odds: Crotone 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Cremonese 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Crotone 50% | Cremonese 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crotone vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Ezio Scida • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crotone 26% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Crotone 0.98 / Cremonese 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Crotone attack 0.869 / def 1.214 | Cremonese attack 0.968 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Crotone xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Cremonese xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crotone vs Cremonese kick off?
Crotone vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What was the final score in Crotone vs Cremonese?
Crotone 3 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Crotone vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What competition is Crotone vs Cremonese part of?
Crotone vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Crotone vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Crotone a 26% chance of winning, Cremonese a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Crotone and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Crotone vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Crotone 0W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Crotone and Cremonese in?
Crotone (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Cremonese (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crotone's attack rating (0.87) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Crotone's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
26%
3.79
33%
3.03
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Crotone xG
Total xG
2.24
1.26
Cremonese xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
7%
13.37
15%
6.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crotone vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Crotone and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Crotone and 1.26 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Crotone vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Crotone have picked up 0.63 PPG on a 3W 13D 19L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Cremonese's form line: 19W 9D 7L from 35 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 1.26 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crotone.
Venue Form
On home soil, Crotone have posted 1.00 PPG from 17 outings (3W 8D 6L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 8W 3D 6L from 17 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crotone are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.54 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crotone have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crotone
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crotone and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Crotone have gone 3W 13D 19L in their last 35 games (0.63 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 19W 9D 7L in their last 35 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crotone at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crotone at home: 1.00 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Crotone
0
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Crotone have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crotone and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2022, when Crotone 3-1 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crotone 59%, Cremonese 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Crotone) and 47% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Crotone have failed to score in 35% of games; Cremonese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crotone home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crotone play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Crotone's recent matches and 47% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crotone vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Crotone's recent games and 47% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crotone and Cremonese tend to score early?
Crotone have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crotone cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crotone beat Cremonese 3-1 at Stadio Ezio Scida, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crotone 0.98 xG and Cremonese 1.26 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Crotone beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crotone attack 0.87 / defence 1.21 against Cremonese attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crotone 26% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 41%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Crotone win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crotone 46%, Cremonese 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crotone's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.63. Form was overturned, with Crotone winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crotone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.