Crotone 0-2 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crotone vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crotone host Benevento at Stadio Ezio Scida in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 28 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Crotone — All Games: 1W 4D 4L from 9 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.78 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 1.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crotone's home record at Stadio Ezio Scida: 1W 3D 1L from 5 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have recorded 4W 4D 1L from 9 outings — 1.78 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 0.78. Defensively, 0.78 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 1.78 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benevento are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.78 vs 0.78), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Crotone in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Benevento in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crotone 67% versus Benevento 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crotone 67% | Benevento 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crotone 1.12 xG and Benevento 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crotone attack 1.034 / defence 1.341 | Benevento attack 0.843 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.122. Data: 9 Crotone games / 9 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crotone 30% | Draw 33% | Benevento 37%. Fair-value odds: Crotone 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Benevento 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crotone 80% | Benevento 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crotone vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Ezio Scida • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crotone 30% | Draw 33% | Benevento 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Crotone 1.12 / Benevento 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Crotone attack 1.034 / def 1.341 | Benevento attack 0.843 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Benevento (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Crotone xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Benevento xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crotone vs Benevento kick off?
Crotone vs Benevento kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What was the final score in Crotone vs Benevento?
Crotone 0 - 2 Benevento.
Where is Crotone vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What competition is Crotone vs Benevento part of?
Crotone vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Crotone vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Crotone a 30% chance of winning, Benevento a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Crotone and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Crotone vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crotone and Benevento in?
Crotone (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.89 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Benevento (all comps): 4W-4D-1L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.78 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crotone's attack rating (1.03) and Benevento's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Crotone's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
30%
3.32
33%
3.05
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Crotone xG
Total xG
2.39
1.27
Benevento xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
8%
11.80
12%
8.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crotone vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Crotone and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Crotone and 1.27 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Crotone vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crotone's recent record stands at 1W 4D 4L from 9 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 1L across 9 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benevento by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crotone heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crotone have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — Crotone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Benevento's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benevento's season.
The Goals Picture
Crotone are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.67 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crotone have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Benevento in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crotone
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crotone and Benevento in coming into this match?
Crotone have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Benevento have gone 4W 4D 1L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crotone at home or Benevento away?
Crotone's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crotone at home: 1.25 PPG; Benevento away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Crotone or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crotone have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Benevento in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crotone and Benevento runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crotone
0
Draws
2
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Benevento?
From 2 meetings on record, Crotone have won 0, Benevento have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crotone and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Benevento 3-1 Crotone.
Who has won more matches between Crotone and Benevento?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crotone 75%, Benevento 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Crotone) and 0% (Benevento).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crotone home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crotone play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Crotone's games and 50% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crotone vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Crotone's recent games and 0% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crotone and Benevento tend to score early?
Crotone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Benevento in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benevento cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Crotone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Crotone 0-2 at Stadio Ezio Scida, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crotone 1.12 xG and Benevento 1.27 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Crotone fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crotone attack 1.03 / defence 1.34 against Benevento attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crotone 30% | Draw 33% | Benevento 37%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crotone 67%, Benevento 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crotone's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benevento's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. Crotone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Benevento (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.