Cremonese 3-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 23 as Cremonese welcome Parma to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 15 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Parma — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Cremonese have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cremonese, 0 for Parma and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Parma trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 50% versus Parma 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 41% | Parma 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.37 xG and Parma 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.277 / defence 1.157 | Parma attack 0.827 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.133. Cremonese carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 1.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 22 Cremonese games / 22 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 40% | Draw 33% | Parma 26%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Parma 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 60% | Parma 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 40% | Draw 33% | Parma 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Cremonese 1.37 / Parma 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.277 / def 1.157 | Parma attack 0.827 / def 1.114 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Parma xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Parma kick off?
Cremonese vs Parma kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 15 February 2022 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Parma?
Cremonese 3 - 1 Parma.
Where is Cremonese vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Parma part of?
Cremonese vs Parma is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 40% chance of winning, Parma a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cremonese and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Parma?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | Parma 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Parma in?
Cremonese (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Parma (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cremonese's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
40%
2.49
33%
2.99
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.46
1.08
Parma xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
7%
14.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.08 for Parma, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese's recent record stands at 12W 5D 5L from 22 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 6W 10D 6L across 22 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Parma heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 6W 4D 1L from 11 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 3W 5D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.18 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Parma in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 12W 5D 5L in their last 22 games (1.86 PPG), while Parma have gone 6W 10D 6L in their last 22 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Parma away?
Cremonese's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 2.00 PPG; Parma away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Parma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cremonese's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cremonese
2
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 3, Parma have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Parma 0-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Parma?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 54%, Parma 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cremonese) and 64% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Parma in 36%; Parma in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cremonese's recent matches and 54% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cremonese's recent games and 64% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Parma tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Parma in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Parma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Parma 3-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.37 xG and Parma 1.08 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.28 / defence 1.16 against Parma attack 0.83 / defence 1.11, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 40% | Draw 33% | Parma 26%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 41%, Parma 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Parma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.