Cremonese 0-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cremonese at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Palermo meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 27 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palermo (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Cremonese. A 0.70 PPG lead over Palermo (1.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cremonese, 1 for Palermo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 44% versus Palermo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 49% | Palermo 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.38 xG and Palermo 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.991 / defence 0.831 | Palermo attack 0.795 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Cremonese games / 40 Palermo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 51% | Draw 28% | Palermo 21%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Palermo 4.76. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 60% | Palermo 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 51% | Draw 28% | Palermo 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Cremonese 1.38 / Palermo 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.991 / def 0.831 | Palermo attack 0.795 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Palermo xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Palermo kick off?
Cremonese vs Palermo kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 27 August 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Palermo?
Cremonese 0 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Cremonese vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Palermo part of?
Cremonese vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 51% chance of winning, Palermo a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cremonese and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Palermo?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 1 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Palermo in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Palermo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.99) and Palermo's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (0.80x) against Cremonese's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.58
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.15
0.78
Palermo xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
5%
18.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.78 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 21W 11D 11L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo's form line: 16W 11D 16L from 43 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Cremonese against 1.37 for Palermo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.81 PPG from 21 outings (11W 5D 5L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 7W 6D 8L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.51 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Palermo in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 21W 11D 11L in their last 43 games (1.72 PPG), while Palermo have gone 16W 11D 16L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Palermo away?
Cremonese's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.81 PPG; Palermo away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Palermo in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cremonese
1
Draws
2
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Palermo?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Palermo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Palermo 2-3 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 43%, Palermo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cremonese) and 43% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Cremonese's recent matches and 57% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cremonese's recent games and 43% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Palermo tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Palermo in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palermo defy the odds to beat Cremonese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Cremonese 0-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.38 xG and Palermo 0.78 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.99 / defence 0.83 against Palermo attack 0.80 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 51% | Draw 28% | Palermo 21%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Palermo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 49%, Palermo 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palermo's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.72 PPG, Palermo 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.