Cremonese vs Empoli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Empoli at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Empoli stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Empoli — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cremonese have won 1, Empoli 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Empoli winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Empoli in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 40% versus Empoli 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 45% | Empoli 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.15 xG and Empoli 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.713 / defence 1.361 | Empoli attack 0.943 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Cremonese games / 40 Empoli games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 28% | Draw 28% | Empoli 44%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Empoli 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Empoli 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 28% | Draw 28% | Empoli 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Cremonese 1.15 / Empoli 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.713 / def 1.361 | Empoli attack 0.943 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Empoli (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Empoli xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Empoli kick off?
Cremonese vs Empoli is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Empoli part of?
Cremonese vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 28% chance of winning, Empoli a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cremonese and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Empoli?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | Empoli 2W.
What form are Cremonese and Empoli in?
Cremonese (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Empoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.71x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
28%
3.59
28%
3.61
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.67
1.51
Empoli xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
6%
16.32
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.51 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 40 games, going 8W 10D 22L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.10 PPG from 40 outings (10W 14D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 0.85 PPG, Empoli on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 3W 7D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (4W 3D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.23 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Empoli in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 8W 10D 22L in their last 40 games (0.85 PPG), while Empoli have gone 10W 14D 16L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Empoli away?
Cremonese's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.80 PPG; Empoli away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Cremonese
0
Draws
2
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Empoli?
From 3 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Empoli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Empoli 1-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Empoli see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 50%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 60% (Empoli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 40% of games; Empoli in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cremonese's recent matches and 50% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cremonese's matches and 60% of Empoli's.
Do Cremonese and Empoli tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Empoli in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.