Cremonese vs Cesena – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cremonese at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Cesena travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cremonese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cesena — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cesena haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cesena's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 1.00 PPG, Cesena 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cremonese, 1 for Cesena and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Cesena winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Cesena trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 42% versus Cesena 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 45% | Cesena 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.29 xG and Cesena 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Cesena attack 0.864 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Cremonese games / 38 Cesena games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 40% | Draw 30% | Cesena 29%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Cesena 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Cesena 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 40% | Draw 30% | Cesena 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Cremonese 1.29 / Cesena 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Cesena attack 0.864 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Cesena xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Cesena kick off?
Cremonese vs Cesena is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Cesena part of?
Cremonese vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 40% chance of winning, Cesena a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cremonese and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Cesena?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | Cesena 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Cesena in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Cremonese vs Cesena?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Cesena's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Cesena's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
40%
2.48
30%
3.28
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.36
1.06
Cesena xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.06 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 8W 10D 20L from 38 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. Cremonese haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Cesena, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 16L across 38 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. Cesena haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 0.89 PPG, Cesena on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 3W 7D 9L from 19 games — 0.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cesena's away record stands at 6W 4D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.18 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Pre-Season
Cesena
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Cesena in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 8W 10D 20L in their last 38 games (0.89 PPG), while Cesena have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Cesena away?
Cesena's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.84 PPG; Cesena away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Cesena runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cremonese
0
Draws
1
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Cesena?
From 2 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Cesena have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Cremonese 1-2 Cesena.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 53%, Cesena 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cremonese) and 47% (Cesena).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 37% of games; Cesena in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Cesena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cremonese's recent matches and 53% of Cesena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 47% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Cesena tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Cesena in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.