Cremonese vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Cremonese and Benevento meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Cremonese have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games (1.57 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.57 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cremonese, 0 for Benevento and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 57% of games.

Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 43% versus Benevento 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 57% | Benevento 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.06 xG and Benevento 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.823 / defence 1.090 | Benevento attack 0.748 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 7 Cremonese games / 7 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cremonese 34% | Draw 34% | Benevento 32%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Benevento 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 50% | Benevento 57%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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