Como 2-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Como (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Como face Ternana.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Como host Ternana at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 September 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Como — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Como have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Como at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Como are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ternana away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Como have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Como have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Ternana have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 3–1 with Como winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Como and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Como in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Ternana in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 51% versus Ternana 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 39% | Ternana 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.58 xG and Ternana 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.189 / defence 1.129 | Ternana attack 0.923 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.064. Data: 41 Como games / 42 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 46% | Draw 29% | Ternana 25%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Ternana 4.00. Como hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Como as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Como 70% | Ternana 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 46% | Draw 29% | Ternana 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Como 1.58 / Ternana 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.189 / def 1.129 | Ternana attack 0.923 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Como (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ternana xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Ternana kick off?
Como vs Ternana kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Ternana?
Como 2 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Como vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Ternana part of?
Como vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Como a 46% chance of winning, Ternana a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Como and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Ternana?
Record (4 meetings): Como 3W | Draws 1 | Ternana 0W.
What form are Como and Ternana in?
Como (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Ternana (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Como's attack at 1.19x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Como's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.45
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Como xG
Total xG
2.69
1.11
Ternana xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
5%
19.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Como and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Como and 1.11 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Como come into this having played 41 games, going 11W 18D 12L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Como, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ternana sit at 1.07 PPG from 41 outings (11W 11D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Como on 1.24 PPG, Ternana on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Como's home form reads 8W 7D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Ternana have taken 0.74 points per game from 19 outings (3W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Como are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 0.93 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Early Season
Ternana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Ternana in coming into this match?
Como have gone 11W 18D 12L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while Ternana have gone 11W 11D 19L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Ternana away?
Como's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.63 PPG; Ternana away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Como or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Ternana in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Como and Ternana runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Como go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2022, when Como won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Como's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Como
1
Draws
0
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Como have won 5, Ternana have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Como and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Ternana 0-1 Como.
Who has won more matches between Como and Ternana?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 53%, Ternana 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Como) and 58% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Ternana in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Ternana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Como's recent matches and 53% of Ternana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Como's recent games and 58% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Ternana tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Ternana in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Como edge out Ternana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Ternana 2-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.58 xG and Ternana 1.11 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.19 / defence 1.13 against Ternana attack 0.92 / defence 1.12, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 46% | Draw 29% | Ternana 25%, with Como to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 39%, Ternana 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.24 PPG, Ternana 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.