Cittadella 0-0 Perugia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Perugia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cittadella vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cittadella and Perugia meet at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 6 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cittadella's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cittadella's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Perugia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Perugia's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Cittadella, 1.30 for Perugia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cittadella 0W, Perugia 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cittadella goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Perugia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 44% versus Perugia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cittadella 31% | Perugia 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 0.90 xG and Perugia 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.822 / defence 1.135 | Perugia attack 0.936 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.085. Data: 32 Cittadella games / 32 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 25% | Draw 36% | Perugia 39%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 4.00 | Draw 2.78 | Perugia 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Perugia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Perugia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cittadella 40% | Perugia 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 25% | Draw 36% | Perugia 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Cittadella 0.90 / Perugia 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.822 / def 1.135 | Perugia attack 0.936 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Perugia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Perugia xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Perugia kick off?
Cittadella vs Perugia kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 6 April 2022 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Perugia?
Cittadella 0 - 0 Perugia.
Where is Cittadella vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Perugia part of?
Cittadella vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 25% chance of winning, Perugia a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cittadella and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Perugia?
Record (1 meetings): Cittadella 0W | Draws 1 | Perugia 0W.
What form are Cittadella and Perugia in?
Cittadella (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Perugia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cittadella's attack at 0.82x the league average against Perugia's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.94x) against Cittadella's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
25%
3.92
36%
2.78
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.05
1.15
Perugia xG
3.92
25%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
8%
12.42
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 14.8 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.15 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cittadella come into this having played 32 games, going 11W 11D 10L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Perugia sit at 1.47 PPG from 32 outings (11W 14D 7L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Cittadella against 1.47 for Perugia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cittadella's home form reads 6W 4D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Perugia have taken 1.75 points per game from 16 outings (7W 7D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cittadella are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.06 scored and 0.88 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Perugia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Current Season
Perugia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Perugia in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 11W 11D 10L in their last 32 games (1.38 PPG), while Perugia have gone 11W 14D 7L in their last 32 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Perugia away?
Perugia's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.38 PPG; Perugia away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Perugia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cittadella have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Perugia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cittadella
2
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 1, Perugia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Cittadella 0-2 Perugia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 44%, Perugia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cittadella) and 44% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Perugia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cittadella's recent matches and 56% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cittadella's recent games and 44% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Perugia tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Perugia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cittadella's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 33, as Cittadella and Perugia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 0.90 xG and Perugia 1.15 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cittadella fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Perugia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.82 / defence 1.14 against Perugia attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 25% | Draw 36% | Perugia 39%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 31%, Perugia 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Perugia's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.38 PPG, Perugia 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.