Cittadella 1-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cittadella vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato plays host to Cittadella versus Cremonese in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 27 October 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Cittadella (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cittadella have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cremonese have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cremonese have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Cittadella against 1.30 for Cremonese. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cittadella lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cittadella half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 46% versus Cremonese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 38% | Cremonese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.08 xG and Cremonese 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.946 / defence 1.095 | Cremonese attack 1.210 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.174. Cremonese have an above-average attack strength of 1.210 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Cittadella games / 10 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 24% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 46%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Cremonese 2.17. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cittadella 30% | Cremonese 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 24% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Cittadella 1.08 / Cremonese 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.946 / def 1.095 | Cremonese attack 1.210 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Cremonese xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Cremonese kick off?
Cittadella vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Cremonese?
Cittadella 1 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Cittadella vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Cremonese part of?
Cittadella vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 24% chance of winning, Cremonese a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cittadella and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Cittadella 0W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Cittadella and Cremonese in?
Cittadella (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cittadella's attack rating (0.95) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (1.21x) against Cittadella's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
24%
4.18
30%
3.33
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.63
1.56
Cremonese xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
5%
19.83
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.56 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cittadella's recent record stands at 12W 20D 16L from 48 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 8W 16D 24L across 48 games — 0.83 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Cittadella against 0.83 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cittadella have managed 6W 10D 7L from 23 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 4W 9D 10L across 23 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cittadella are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 12W 20D 16L in their last 48 games (1.17 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 8W 16D 24L in their last 48 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Cremonese away?
Cittadella's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.22 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 3-0 on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cittadella have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cittadella
2
Draws
4
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 0, Cremonese have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Cremonese 2-2 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 30%, Cremonese 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Cittadella) and 56% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Cittadella have failed to score in 56% of games; Cremonese in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Cittadella's recent matches and 70% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Cittadella's recent games and 56% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Cremonese tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Cittadella 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Cittadella 1-2 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.08 xG and Cremonese 1.56 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Cremonese attack 1.21 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 24% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 46%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 38%, Cremonese 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.17 PPG, Cremonese 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cittadella (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.