Catanzaro 1-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Modena at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Catanzaro vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo plays host to Catanzaro versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Catanzaro (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Catanzaro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Catanzaro's home record at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo: 3W 1D 1L from 5 Serie B appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Modena have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Catanzaro against 1.60 for Modena. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Catanzaro half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Catanzaro 46% versus Modena 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Catanzaro 64% | Modena 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Catanzaro 1.04 xG and Modena 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Catanzaro attack 1.079 / defence 1.157 | Modena attack 0.880 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.216. Data: 11 Catanzaro games / 49 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Catanzaro 29% | Draw 33% | Modena 39%. Fair-value odds: Catanzaro 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Modena 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Catanzaro 40% | Modena 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Catanzaro vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Nicola Ceravolo • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Catanzaro 29% | Draw 33% | Modena 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Catanzaro 1.04 / Modena 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Catanzaro attack 1.079 / def 1.157 | Modena attack 0.880 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Modena (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Catanzaro xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Modena xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Catanzaro vs Modena kick off?
Catanzaro vs Modena kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo.
What was the final score in Catanzaro vs Modena?
Catanzaro 1 - 2 Modena.
Where is Catanzaro vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo.
What competition is Catanzaro vs Modena part of?
Catanzaro vs Modena is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Catanzaro vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Catanzaro a 29% chance of winning, Modena a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Catanzaro vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Catanzaro and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Catanzaro vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Catanzaro and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Catanzaro and Modena in?
Catanzaro (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Modena (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Catanzaro's attack at 1.08x the league average against Modena's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.88x) against Catanzaro's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
29%
3.49
33%
3.05
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Catanzaro xG
Total xG
2.28
1.24
Modena xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
8%
12.06
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Catanzaro vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Catanzaro and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Catanzaro and 1.24 for Modena, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Catanzaro vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Catanzaro come into this having played 11 games, going 6W 3D 2L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Catanzaro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.73 PPG from 11 outings (5W 4D 2L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.91 PPG for Catanzaro against 1.73 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Catanzaro's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.80 points per game from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Catanzaro are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.00 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Catanzaro have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Modena in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Catanzaro
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Catanzaro and Modena in coming into this match?
Catanzaro have gone 6W 3D 2L in their last 11 games (1.91 PPG), while Modena have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Catanzaro at home or Modena away?
Catanzaro's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Catanzaro at home: 2.00 PPG; Modena away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Catanzaro or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Catanzaro have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Modena in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Catanzaro have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Catanzaro
2
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Catanzaro and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Catanzaro have won 2, Modena have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Catanzaro and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2026, when Catanzaro 2-2 Modena.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Catanzaro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Modena see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Catanzaro 40%, Modena 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Catanzaro) and 20% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Catanzaro keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Modena in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Catanzaro home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Catanzaro play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Catanzaro's recent matches and 60% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Catanzaro vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Catanzaro's recent games and 20% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Catanzaro and Modena tend to score early?
Catanzaro have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Modena in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Catanzaro 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Catanzaro 1-2 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Catanzaro 1.04 xG and Modena 1.24 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Catanzaro attack 1.08 / defence 1.16 against Modena attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Catanzaro 29% | Draw 33% | Modena 39%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Catanzaro 64%, Modena 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Catanzaro's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Modena's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Catanzaro 1.91 PPG, Modena 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Catanzaro (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.