Carrarese 0-2 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Carrarese face Sassuolo.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Carrarese welcome Sassuolo to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B (matchday 5). Kick-off is Sunday 15 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 4 games, Carrarese have gone 1W 0D 3L — a 0.75 PPG return. Last five: L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings (25%).
Sassuolo — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.75 PPG (Carrarese) versus 0.90 (Sassuolo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Carrarese trading profile (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Sassuolo trading profile (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Carrarese 50% and Sassuolo 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 50% | Sassuolo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.31 xG and Sassuolo 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.974 / defence 0.995 | Sassuolo attack 0.863 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.061. Data: built from Carrarese's last 4 games and Sassuolo's last 4.
Result probabilities: Carrarese 44% | Draw 32% | Sassuolo 24%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.26 | Draw 3.16 | Sassuolo 4.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Carrarese are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Carrarese 50% (last 4 games) | Sassuolo 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 5 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 44% | Draw 32% | Sassuolo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Carrarese 1.31 / Sassuolo 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.974 / def 0.995 | Sassuolo attack 0.863 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Sassuolo xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Carrarese vs Sassuolo FAQs
What time does Carrarese vs Sassuolo kick off?
Carrarese vs Sassuolo kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Sassuolo?
Carrarese 0 - 2 Sassuolo.
Where is Carrarese vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Carrarese vs Sassuolo part of?
Carrarese vs Sassuolo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 5) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 44% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Carrarese and Sassuolo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Carrarese vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Carrarese's attack at 0.97x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Carrarese's last 4 games and Sassuolo's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
44%
2.26
32%
3.16
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.23
0.91
Sassuolo xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
6%
15.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Carrarese vs Sassuolo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.91 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Carrarese's recent record stands at 1W 0D 3L from 4 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-L-W-L in the last five.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 1L across 4 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sassuolo by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Carrarese heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Carrarese are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 100%.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Early Season
Sassuolo
Early Season
Carrarese (Home) vs Sassuolo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Carrarese
Early Season
Sassuolo
Early Season
❓ Carrarese vs Sassuolo Form FAQs
What form are Carrarese and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Carrarese
0
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Carrarese vs Sassuolo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Sassuolo?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Carrarese have won 0, Sassuolo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Sassuolo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2025: Sassuolo 2-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Sassuolo?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Carrarese at 50%, Sassuolo at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Carrarese) and 50% (Sassuolo).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Carrarese vs Sassuolo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Carrarese and Sassuolo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Carrarese's games and 100% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Carrarese and Sassuolo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Carrarese's recent games and 50% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Sassuolo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Carrarese's recent matches and 100% of Sassuolo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Carrarese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Carrarese 0-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.31 xG and Sassuolo 0.91 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Carrarese fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sassuolo outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Sassuolo attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 44% | Draw 32% | Sassuolo 24%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Sassuolo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 50%, Sassuolo 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sassuolo's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Carrarese managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sassuolo conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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