Carrarese 0-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Carrarese and Modena meet at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 1 October 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carrarese have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio dei Marmi — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Modena have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Modena away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Carrarese against 1.70 for Modena. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Carrarese have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Modena in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Carrarese lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Carrarese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Carrarese half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 49% versus Modena 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 44% | Modena 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.21 xG and Modena 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 1.049 / defence 1.217 | Modena attack 1.198 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.169. Data: 43 Carrarese games / 43 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 24% | Draw 31% | Modena 46%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Modena 2.17. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 70% | Modena 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 24% | Draw 31% | Modena 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Carrarese 1.21 / Modena 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 1.049 / def 1.217 | Modena attack 1.198 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Modena (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Modena xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Modena kick off?
Carrarese vs Modena kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 1 October 2025 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Modena?
Carrarese 0 - 0 Modena.
Where is Carrarese vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Modena part of?
Carrarese vs Modena is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 24% chance of winning, Modena a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Carrarese and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Modena?
Record (2 meetings): Carrarese 1W | Draws 0 | Modena 1W.
What form are Carrarese and Modena in?
Carrarese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Modena (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Carrarese's attack rating (1.05) and Modena's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Modena's attack (1.20x) against Carrarese's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
24%
4.21
31%
3.27
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.92
1.71
Modena xG
4.21
24%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
4%
23.13
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.71 for Modena, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Carrarese's recent record stands at 12W 15D 16L from 43 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 13L across 43 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Carrarese against 1.35 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Carrarese have managed 10W 6D 5L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Modena's away record stands at 6W 7D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Carrarese are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.37 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Modena in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 12W 15D 16L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while Modena have gone 14W 16D 13L in their last 43 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Modena away?
Carrarese's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.71 PPG; Modena away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Modena in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carrarese have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carrarese
1
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Modena?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Modena have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Modena 2-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 38%, Modena 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Carrarese) and 48% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 29% of games; Modena in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Carrarese's recent matches and 57% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Carrarese's recent games and 48% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Modena tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Modena in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Carrarese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 6, as Carrarese and Modena drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.21 xG and Modena 1.71 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carrarese fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Modena landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.05 / defence 1.22 against Modena attack 1.20 / defence 0.87, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 24% | Draw 31% | Modena 46%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 44%, Modena 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Modena's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.19 PPG, Modena 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.