Carrarese 2-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bari at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carrarese vs Bari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 31 as Carrarese welcome Bari to Stadio dei Marmi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carrarese have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio dei Marmi — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Bari — All Games: 2W 7D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bari have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bari are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Carrarese, 0 for Bari and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bari in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 43% versus Bari 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carrarese 43% | Bari 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 0.96 xG and Bari 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.912 / defence 1.175 | Bari attack 0.842 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.123. Data: 30 Carrarese games / 68 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 29% | Draw 33% | Bari 37%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Bari 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 30% | Bari 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 29% | Draw 33% | Bari 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Carrarese 0.96 / Bari 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.912 / def 1.175 | Bari attack 0.842 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Bari (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Bari xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Bari kick off?
Carrarese vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Bari?
Carrarese 2 - 1 Bari.
Where is Carrarese vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Bari part of?
Carrarese vs Bari is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 29% chance of winning, Bari a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Carrarese and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Bari?
Record (1 meetings): Carrarese 0W | Draws 1 | Bari 0W.
What form are Carrarese and Bari in?
Carrarese (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Bari (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Carrarese's attack rating (0.91) and Bari's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
29%
3.39
33%
2.99
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.07
1.11
Bari xG
3.39
29%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 14.0 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.11 for Bari, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Carrarese have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 8W 9D 13L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Bari's form line: 8W 16D 6L from 30 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 1.10 PPG, Bari on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Carrarese have posted 1.57 PPG from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bari have gone 3W 7D 4L from 14 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carrarese are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.07 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Bari in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Bari in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 games (1.10 PPG), while Bari have gone 8W 16D 6L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Bari away?
Carrarese's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.57 PPG; Bari away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bari in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Carrarese have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2026, when Carrarese won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Carrarese's record when hosting Bari specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Carrarese
1
Draws
0
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Bari?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 3, Bari have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Bari 0-3 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Bari?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 29%, Bari 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Carrarese and 21% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bari in 43%; Carrarese have failed to score in 36% of games; Bari in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Carrarese's recent matches and 43% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Carrarese's recent games and 21% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Bari tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Bari in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Carrarese defy the odds to beat Bari 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Bari 2-1 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 0.96 xG and Bari 1.11 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.91 / defence 1.18 against Bari attack 0.84 / defence 0.85, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 29% | Draw 33% | Bari 37%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 43%, Bari 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Bari's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.10 PPG, Bari 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.