Cagliari 1-4 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Venezia travel to Unipol Domus to take on Cagliari. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Unipol Domus, Cagliari have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Venezia have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Cagliari) versus 1.00 (Venezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cagliari, 0 for Venezia and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cagliari trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Venezia trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 57% versus Venezia 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 48% | Venezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.15 xG and Venezia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.809 / defence 1.027 | Venezia attack 0.838 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.055. Data: 6 Cagliari games / 6 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 41% | Draw 30% | Venezia 29%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Venezia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cagliari 50% | Venezia 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 41% | Draw 30% | Venezia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Cagliari 1.15 / Venezia 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.809 / def 1.027 | Venezia attack 0.838 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Venezia xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Venezia kick off?
Cagliari vs Venezia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Venezia?
Cagliari 1 - 4 Venezia.
Where is Cagliari vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Venezia part of?
Cagliari vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 41% chance of winning, Venezia a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cagliari and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Venezia?
Record (2 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 2 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Cagliari and Venezia in?
Cagliari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Venezia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.81) and Venezia's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.33
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.06
0.91
Venezia xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.91 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Cagliari have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 9W 13D 22L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia's form line: 7W 11D 26L from 44 games, 0.73 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 0.91 PPG, Venezia on 0.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 0.95 PPG from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 4W 5D 13L from 22 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.89 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Venezia in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 9W 13D 22L in their last 44 games (0.91 PPG), while Venezia have gone 7W 11D 26L in their last 44 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Venezia away?
Cagliari's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 0.95 PPG; Venezia away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Venezia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Cagliari
3
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Venezia?
From 7 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 2, Venezia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Cagliari 3-0 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 68%, Venezia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Cagliari) and 46% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Venezia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cagliari's games and 54% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Cagliari's recent games and 46% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Venezia tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Venezia in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Venezia run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Cagliari 1-4 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.15 xG and Venezia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 0.91 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.81 / defence 1.03 against Venezia attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 41% | Draw 30% | Venezia 29%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 48%, Venezia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.91 PPG, Venezia 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.