Cagliari 2-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round sees Venezia travel to Unipol Domus to take on Cagliari. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 May 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Unipol Domus, Cagliari have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Unipol Domus.
Across all Serie B games this season, Venezia have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Cagliari) versus 2.00 (Venezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cagliari, 1 for Venezia and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cagliari trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Venezia trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 57% versus Venezia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 46% | Venezia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.39 xG and Venezia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.052 / defence 0.930 | Venezia attack 0.974 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.063. Data: 38 Cagliari games / 38 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 45% | Draw 30% | Venezia 24%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Venezia 4.17. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cagliari 50% | Venezia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 45% | Draw 30% | Venezia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Cagliari 1.39 / Venezia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.052 / def 0.930 | Venezia attack 0.974 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Venezia xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Venezia kick off?
Cagliari vs Venezia kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Venezia?
Cagliari 2 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Cagliari vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Venezia part of?
Cagliari vs Venezia is a Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 45% chance of winning, Venezia a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cagliari and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Venezia?
Record (4 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 3 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Cagliari and Venezia in?
Cagliari (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Venezia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (1.05) and Venezia's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
45%
2.22
30%
3.29
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.35
0.96
Venezia xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
6%
16.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.96 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Cagliari have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 21W 27D 28L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Venezia's form line: 19W 19D 38L from 76 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.18 PPG, Venezia on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.42 PPG from 38 outings (14W 12D 12L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 9W 9D 20L from 38 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.12 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 62%.
Last 76 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Venezia in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 21W 27D 28L in their last 76 games (1.18 PPG), while Venezia have gone 19W 19D 38L in their last 76 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Venezia away?
Cagliari's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.42 PPG; Venezia away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Venezia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Cagliari
3
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Venezia?
From 7 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 2, Venezia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Cagliari 3-0 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 68%, Venezia 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cagliari) and 45% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Venezia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cagliari's games and 55% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cagliari's recent games and 45% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Venezia tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Venezia in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Venezia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Venezia 2-1 at Unipol Domus, Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.39 xG and Venezia 0.96 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Venezia attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 45% | Draw 30% | Venezia 24%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 46%, Venezia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.18 PPG, Venezia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.