Cagliari 1-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Cagliari welcome Parma to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 December 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cagliari — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's home record at Unipol Domus: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Parma have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Parma have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Parma's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cagliari's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Parma in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 62% versus Parma 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 50% | Parma 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 0.99 xG and Parma 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.861 / defence 1.188 | Parma attack 0.869 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.105. Data: 14 Cagliari games / 52 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 30% | Draw 32% | Parma 38%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Parma 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cagliari 70% | Parma 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Dec 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 30% | Draw 32% | Parma 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Cagliari 0.99 / Parma 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.861 / def 1.188 | Parma attack 0.869 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Parma (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Parma xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Parma kick off?
Cagliari vs Parma kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 3 December 2022 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Parma?
Cagliari 1 - 1 Parma.
Where is Cagliari vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Parma part of?
Cagliari vs Parma is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 30% chance of winning, Parma a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cagliari and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Parma in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Parma (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.86x the league average against Parma's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
30%
3.35
32%
3.08
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.13
1.14
Parma xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.14 for Parma, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari's recent record stands at 10W 18D 24L from 52 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 17W 20D 15L across 52 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 6W 7D 12L from 25 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 7W 10D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.31 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Parma in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 10W 18D 24L in their last 52 games (0.92 PPG), while Parma have gone 17W 20D 15L in their last 52 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.00 PPG; Parma away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Parma in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Parma runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cagliari's record when hosting Parma specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Cagliari
3
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Parma?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 4, Parma have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Parma 1-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Parma?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 72%, Parma 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cagliari) and 48% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 36%; Parma in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Cagliari's games and 48% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cagliari's recent games and 48% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Parma tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Parma in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Parma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari and Parma finished level at 1-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 0.99 xG and Parma 1.14 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.86 / defence 1.19 against Parma attack 0.87 / defence 0.91, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 30% | Draw 32% | Parma 38%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 50%, Parma 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.