Cagliari 1-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Modena travel to Unipol Domus to take on Cagliari. The game is scheduled for Friday 2 September 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cagliari have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Unipol Domus, Cagliari have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 1W 0D 2L from 3 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.33. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Cagliari) versus 1.00 (Modena). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cagliari register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Modena in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Modena in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cagliari 67% and Modena 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 33% | Modena 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.60 xG and Modena 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.998 / defence 1.128 | Modena attack 0.855 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.083. Modena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Cagliari games / 3 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 50% | Draw 25% | Modena 25%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Modena 4.00. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cagliari at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 70% | Modena 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 50% | Draw 25% | Modena 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Cagliari 1.60 / Modena 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.998 / def 1.128 | Modena attack 0.855 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Modena xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Modena kick off?
Cagliari vs Modena kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Modena?
Cagliari 1 - 0 Modena.
Where is Cagliari vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Modena part of?
Cagliari vs Modena is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 50% chance of winning, Modena a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cagliari and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Modena in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Modena (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (1.00) and Modena's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
50%
1.99
25%
4.01
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.65
1.04
Modena xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
5%
20.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.04 for Modena, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 2L across 3 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.33 PPG, Modena on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Modena in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Modena in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Modena have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Modena runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cagliari
0
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Modena?
From 2 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Modena have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2023, when Modena 2-0 Cagliari.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cagliari at 67%, Modena at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cagliari) and 67% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 33% of games; Modena in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cagliari's games and 67% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cagliari's recent games and 67% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Modena tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Modena in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Modena 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Modena 1-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.60 xG and Modena 1.04 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Modena landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.00 / defence 1.13 against Modena attack 0.85 / defence 1.21, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 50% | Draw 25% | Modena 25%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 33%, Modena 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Modena's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.33 PPG, Modena 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Modena managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.