Brescia 0-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Brescia face Spezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Spezia travel to Stadio Mario Rigamonti to take on Brescia in Serie B (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Brescia stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brescia at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Brescia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Spezia — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Spezia have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Brescia 1.40 PPG, Spezia 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Brescia, 0 for Spezia and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2023, ended Brescia 0–0 Spezia — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Brescia in-play and half-time data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Spezia in-play and half-time data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 52% versus Spezia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 33% | Spezia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.54 xG and Spezia 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.039 / defence 0.828 | Spezia attack 0.690 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.201. Spezia's defence rating of 1.235 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Brescia's projected output up. Spezia's attack rating of 0.690 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. Data: built from Brescia's last 72 games and Spezia's last 34.
Result probabilities: Brescia 56% | Draw 30% | Spezia 14%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 1.80 | Draw 3.31 | Spezia 7.00. The model has a clear lean to Brescia (56%) — a 26pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Brescia 50% (last 10 home games) | Spezia 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 35 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 56% | Draw 30% | Spezia 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Brescia 1.54 / Spezia 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.039 / def 0.828 | Spezia attack 0.690 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Brescia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Spezia xG
41%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brescia vs Spezia FAQs
What time does Brescia vs Spezia kick off?
Brescia vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Spezia?
Brescia 0 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Brescia vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Spezia part of?
Brescia vs Spezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 35) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 56% chance of winning, Spezia a 14% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Brescia and Spezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Brescia vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Brescia's attack at 1.04x the league average against Spezia's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Brescia's last 72 games and Spezia's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
56%
1.80
30%
3.31
14%
7.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.22
0.69
Spezia xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
7.00
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
3%
32.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 11.4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brescia vs Spezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Brescia and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Brescia and 0.69 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Spezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Brescia have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 19W 27D 27L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Spezia's form line: 13W 28D 32L from 73 games, 0.92 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.15 PPG, Spezia on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Brescia have posted 1.31 PPG from their last 36 home games (11W 14D 11L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 5W 12D 19L from their last 36 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.86 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
Brescia (Home) vs Spezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brescia
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
❓ Brescia vs Spezia Form FAQs
What form are Brescia and Spezia in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 19W 27D 27L in their last 73 games (1.15 PPG), while Spezia have gone 13W 28D 32L in their last 73 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Spezia away?
Brescia's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.31 PPG; Spezia away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 28 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brescia's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Brescia
3
Draws
0
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Brescia vs Spezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Spezia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Brescia have won 1, Spezia have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Spezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 March 2025: Spezia 0-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Spezia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 50%, Spezia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Brescia) and 50% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Brescia have failed to score in 33% of games; Spezia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brescia vs Spezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brescia and Spezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Brescia's recent matches and 47% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Brescia and Spezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Brescia's recent games and 50% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Spezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Brescia's recent matches and 69% of Spezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brescia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 35, as Brescia and Spezia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.54 xG and Spezia 0.69 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brescia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.04 / defence 0.83 against Spezia attack 0.69 / defence 1.24, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 56% | Draw 30% | Spezia 14%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 33%, Spezia 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spezia's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.15 PPG, Spezia 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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