Brescia 0-3 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brescia host Genoa at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brescia stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Brescia at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Genoa — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Genoa away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Genoa are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Brescia, 0 for Genoa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Brescia trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games).
Genoa trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 51% versus Genoa 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 31% | Genoa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 0.86 xG and Genoa 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.718 / defence 1.209 | Genoa attack 0.946 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 0.959. Brescia's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Brescia games / 29 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 27% | Draw 33% | Genoa 40%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Genoa 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 40% | Genoa 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 27% | Draw 33% | Genoa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Brescia 0.86 / Genoa 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.718 / def 1.209 | Genoa attack 0.946 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.179 / away 0.959 • Poisson stance: Genoa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Genoa xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Genoa kick off?
Brescia vs Genoa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Genoa?
Brescia 0 - 3 Genoa.
Where is Brescia vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Genoa part of?
Brescia vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 27% chance of winning, Genoa a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Brescia and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Genoa?
Record (1 meetings): Brescia 0W | Draws 1 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Brescia and Genoa in?
Brescia (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Genoa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brescia's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
27%
3.71
33%
2.99
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Brescia xG
Total xG
1.96
1.10
Genoa xG
3.71
27%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Brescia and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Brescia and 1.10 for Genoa, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brescia's recent record stands at 21W 25D 21L from 67 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 19W 25D 23L across 67 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.31 PPG, Genoa on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 12W 12D 9L from 33 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 8W 11D 14L across 33 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.94 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Genoa in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 21W 25D 21L in their last 67 games (1.31 PPG), while Genoa have gone 19W 25D 23L in their last 67 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Genoa away?
Brescia's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.45 PPG; Genoa away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Brescia or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Genoa in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brescia and Genoa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Brescia
1
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Genoa?
From 2 meetings on record, Brescia have won 0, Genoa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Brescia 0-3 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 52%, Genoa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Brescia and 46% for Genoa.
On the defensive side: Genoa in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Brescia's recent matches and 46% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Brescia's recent games and 46% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Genoa tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Genoa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Genoa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Brescia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Brescia 0-3 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 0.86 xG and Genoa 1.10 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Brescia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Genoa outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.72 / defence 1.21 against Genoa attack 0.95 / defence 1.01, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 27% | Draw 33% | Genoa 40%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 31%, Genoa 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genoa's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.31 PPG, Genoa 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.