Benevento vs Cremonese – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson model rates Benevento at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to face Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Benevento (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento have gone 2W 3D 1L this season (6 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Cremonese have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cremonese's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Benevento, 1 for Cremonese and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2026, ended 0–2 with Cremonese winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 50% versus Cremonese 30%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 40% | Cremonese 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.37 xG and Cremonese 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.983 / defence 1.061 | Cremonese attack 0.774 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Data: 10 Benevento games / 10 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Benevento 43% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 26%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 83% | Cremonese 30%.

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