Benevento 1-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ciro Vigorito plays host to Benevento versus Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Benevento (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Brescia's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brescia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Benevento's favour (0.80 vs 0.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Benevento, 2 for Brescia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Brescia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 45% versus Brescia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 37% | Brescia 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.30 xG and Brescia 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.804 / defence 1.235 | Brescia attack 0.778 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.011. Brescia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Benevento games / 62 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 44% | Draw 29% | Brescia 27%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Brescia 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Brescia lead the H2H ledger, but Benevento carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 50% | Brescia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 44% | Draw 29% | Brescia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Benevento 1.30 / Brescia 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.804 / def 1.235 | Brescia attack 0.778 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Benevento (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Brescia xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Brescia kick off?
Benevento vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Brescia?
Benevento 1 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Benevento vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Brescia part of?
Benevento vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 44% chance of winning, Brescia a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Benevento and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Brescia?
Record (3 meetings): Benevento 0W | Draws 1 | Brescia 2W.
What form are Benevento and Brescia in?
Benevento (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Brescia (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Benevento's attack rating (0.80) and Brescia's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.78x) against Benevento's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.45
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.27
0.97
Brescia xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
7%
13.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Benevento and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Benevento and 0.97 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 25W 17D 23L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia's form line: 24W 22D 19L from 65 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Benevento against 1.45 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Benevento have posted 1.39 PPG from 31 outings (12W 7D 12L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 11W 10D 10L from 31 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Benevento are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.25 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Brescia in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 25W 17D 23L in their last 65 games (1.42 PPG), while Brescia have gone 24W 22D 19L in their last 65 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Brescia away?
Benevento's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.39 PPG; Brescia away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Benevento or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Brescia in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benevento have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Benevento
1
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Brescia?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Brescia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Benevento 1-0 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 48%, Brescia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Benevento) and 39% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Brescia in 32%; Benevento have failed to score in 32% of games; Brescia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Benevento's recent matches and 48% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Benevento's recent games and 39% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Brescia tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Brescia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benevento edge out Brescia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Brescia 1-0 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.30 xG and Brescia 0.97 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Brescia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.80 / defence 1.24 against Brescia attack 0.78 / defence 1.38, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 44% | Draw 29% | Brescia 27%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 37%, Brescia 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Brescia's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.42 PPG, Brescia 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.