Bari 2-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bari at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bari face Sudtirol.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Bari and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.

Current Form

Bari's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Bari have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Sudtirol (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Sudtirol have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Bari, 0.80 for Sudtirol — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 2 Jun 2023, ended Bari 1–0 Sudtirol — a Bari win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Bari half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 50% versus Sudtirol 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 34% | Sudtirol 30%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bari surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Sudtirol have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Sudtirol surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Bari recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 71% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.11 xG and Sudtirol 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.941 / defence 1.050 | Sudtirol attack 0.912 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.152. Data: built from Bari's last 53 games and Sudtirol's last 53.

Result probabilities: Bari 34% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 34%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.93 | Draw 3.12 | Sudtirol 2.96. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 34% to win, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Bari 34% and Sudtirol 34%, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bari's last 10 home games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bari 40% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 50% (last 10 away games).

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