Bari 0-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Comunale San Nicola to take on Bari. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 December 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Bari have gone 1W 4D 1L this season (6 games, 1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pisa — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pisa have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bari 1.60 PPG, Pisa 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bari register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Pisa in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Bari in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Pisa in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bari 64% and Pisa 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 43% | Pisa 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.55 xG and Pisa 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.049 / defence 1.233 | Pisa attack 1.115 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.120. Data: 14 Bari games / 52 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 37% | Draw 26% | Pisa 37%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Pisa 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bari 67% | Pisa 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 37% | Draw 26% | Pisa 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Bari 1.55 / Pisa 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.049 / def 1.233 | Pisa attack 1.115 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Pisa xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Pisa kick off?
Bari vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 December 2022 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Pisa?
Bari 0 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Bari vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Pisa part of?
Bari vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 37% chance of winning, Pisa a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Bari and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bari and Pisa in?
Bari (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Pisa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bari's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.78
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Bari xG
Total xG
3.09
1.54
Pisa xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
8%
12.61
8%
12.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Bari and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Bari and 1.54 for Pisa, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, Bari have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 5W 7D 2L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa's form line: 4W 6D 4L from 14 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.57 PPG, Pisa on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (1W 4D 1L). That actually lags their 1.57 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Pisa have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.71 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Pisa in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Pisa in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 5W 7D 2L in their last 14 games (1.57 PPG), while Pisa have gone 4W 6D 4L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Pisa away?
Bari's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.17 PPG; Pisa away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bari and Pisa runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bari's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bari
3
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Pisa have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Bari 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Pisa?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bari at 67%, Pisa at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bari) and 50% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Bari have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bari's games and 83% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bari's recent games and 50% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Pisa tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pisa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 15, as Bari and Pisa drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.55 xG and Pisa 1.54 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bari fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Pisa landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.05 / defence 1.23 against Pisa attack 1.11 / defence 1.18, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 37% | Draw 26% | Pisa 37%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 43%, Pisa 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Pisa's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.57 PPG, Pisa 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.