Bari 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bari host Cosenza at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bari's home record at Stadio Comunale San Nicola: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Comunale San Nicola this season.
Cosenza — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bari at 1.60 PPG versus Cosenza's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Bari have won 2, Cosenza 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–4 with Cosenza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bari in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Cosenza in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 61% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 41% | Cosenza 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.39 xG and Cosenza 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.013 / defence 1.055 | Cosenza attack 1.099 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.132. Data: 44 Bari games / 44 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 38% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 34%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Cosenza 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bari 70% | Cosenza 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 38% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Bari 1.39 / Cosenza 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.013 / def 1.055 | Cosenza attack 1.099 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Bari (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Cosenza xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Cosenza kick off?
Bari vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Cosenza?
Bari 1 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Bari vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Cosenza part of?
Bari vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 38% chance of winning, Cosenza a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bari and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cosenza?
Record (4 meetings): Bari 2W | Draws 1 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Bari and Cosenza in?
Bari (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Cosenza (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bari's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
38%
2.66
28%
3.57
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Bari xG
Total xG
2.70
1.31
Cosenza xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Bari and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Bari and 1.31 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Bari have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 10W 19D 15L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cosenza's form line: 13W 16D 15L from 44 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.11 PPG, Cosenza on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (7W 9D 5L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 6W 8D 7L from 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.20 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Early Season
Cosenza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 10W 19D 15L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 13W 16D 15L in their last 44 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Cosenza away?
Bari's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.43 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bari and Cosenza runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2024, when Cosenza won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bari's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bari
2
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Cosenza have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Cosenza 1-0 Bari.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 62%, Cosenza 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Bari and 24% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Bari's recent matches and 43% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bari's recent games and 24% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Cosenza tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari and Cosenza finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.39 xG and Cosenza 1.31 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Cosenza attack 1.10 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 38% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 34%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 41%, Cosenza 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.11 PPG, Cosenza 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.