Ascoli 1-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Frosinone travel to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca to take on Ascoli. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ascoli stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ascoli have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Frosinone — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Frosinone have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ascoli 1.60 PPG, Frosinone 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ascoli register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Frosinone in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ascoli, 1 for Frosinone and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ascoli trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Frosinone trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 59% versus Frosinone 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 48% | Frosinone 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.34 xG and Frosinone 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.924 / defence 1.139 | Frosinone attack 0.978 / defence 1.421. League average goals — home 1.024 / away 1.129. Frosinone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.421 — this is suppressing Ascoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Ascoli games / 27 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 36% | Draw 32% | Frosinone 32%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Frosinone 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 60% | Frosinone 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 36% | Draw 32% | Frosinone 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Ascoli 1.34 / Frosinone 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.924 / def 1.139 | Frosinone attack 0.978 / def 1.421 | league avg home 1.024 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Frosinone xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Frosinone kick off?
Ascoli vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Frosinone?
Ascoli 1 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Ascoli vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Frosinone part of?
Ascoli vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 36% chance of winning, Frosinone a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ascoli and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Frosinone?
Record (1 meetings): Ascoli 0W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Ascoli and Frosinone in?
Ascoli (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Frosinone (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ascoli's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
36%
2.76
32%
3.15
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.60
1.26
Frosinone xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.26 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 12W 6D 9L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone's form line: 11W 11D 5L from 27 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.56 PPG, Frosinone on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
On the road, Frosinone have gone 5W 5D 3L from 13 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ascoli are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.52 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 12W 6D 9L in their last 27 games (1.56 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 11W 11D 5L in their last 27 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.23 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Frosinone in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ascoli and Frosinone runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Frosinone have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ascoli's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ascoli
1
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 0, Frosinone have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Frosinone 2-0 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Frosinone see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 54%, Frosinone 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Ascoli) and 46% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone in 31%; Ascoli have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ascoli's recent matches and 54% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Ascoli's recent games and 46% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Frosinone tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ascoli and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 28, as Ascoli and Frosinone drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.34 xG and Frosinone 1.26 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against Frosinone attack 0.98 / defence 1.42, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 36% | Draw 32% | Frosinone 32%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 48%, Frosinone 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.56 PPG, Frosinone 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.