Ascoli 1-4 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ascoli host Cremonese at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ascoli — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli have gone 2W 3D 3L this season (8 games, 1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese away from home this season: 4W 1D 3L from 8 away games — 1.62 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Ascoli) versus 1.40 (Cremonese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Ascoli in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 59% versus Cremonese 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 41% | Cremonese 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.85 xG and Cremonese 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.805 / defence 1.097 | Cremonese attack 0.832 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.202. Data: 17 Ascoli games / 17 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 27% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 40%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Cremonese 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 50% | Cremonese 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 27% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Ascoli 0.85 / Cremonese 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.805 / def 1.097 | Cremonese attack 0.832 / def 1.098 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Cremonese xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Cremonese kick off?
Ascoli vs Cremonese kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Ascoli 1 - 4 Cremonese.
Where is Ascoli vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Cremonese part of?
Ascoli vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 27% chance of winning, Cremonese a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ascoli and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Cremonese in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ascoli's attack at 0.81x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
27%
3.66
32%
3.09
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Ascoli xG
Total xG
1.95
1.10
Cremonese xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 15.7 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.10 for Cremonese, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ascoli's recent record stands at 7W 5D 5L from 17 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 4L across 17 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.53 PPG, Cremonese on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ascoli have managed 2W 3D 3L from 8 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.53 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Cremonese's away record stands at 4W 1D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ascoli are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.35 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 7W 5D 5L in their last 17 games (1.53 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 8W 5D 4L in their last 17 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.12 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ascoli and Cremonese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Cremonese won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ascoli's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ascoli
2
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2024, when Ascoli 0-0 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 50%, Cremonese 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Ascoli and 38% for Cremonese.
On the defensive side: Ascoli have failed to score in 38% of games; Cremonese in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ascoli's recent matches and 38% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ascoli's recent games and 38% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Cremonese tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cremonese run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ascoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Ascoli 1-4 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.85 xG and Cremonese 1.10 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 1.10 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against Cremonese attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 27% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 40%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 41%, Cremonese 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.53 PPG, Cremonese 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Ascoli (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.