Ascoli 2-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Cagliari travel to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca to take on Ascoli. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 October 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ascoli stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ascoli have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cagliari have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cagliari have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ascoli at 1.20 PPG versus Cagliari's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Ascoli trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Cagliari trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 53% versus Cagliari 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 40% | Cagliari 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.95 xG and Cagliari 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.867 / defence 1.111 | Cagliari attack 0.748 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.130. Data: 47 Ascoli games / 9 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 34% | Draw 32% | Cagliari 34%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Cagliari 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 50% | Cagliari 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 34% | Draw 32% | Cagliari 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Ascoli 0.95 / Cagliari 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.867 / def 1.111 | Cagliari attack 0.748 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cagliari xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Cagliari kick off?
Ascoli vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Cagliari?
Ascoli 2 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Ascoli vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Cagliari part of?
Ascoli vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 34% chance of winning, Cagliari a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ascoli and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cagliari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Cagliari in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Cagliari (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (0.87) and Cagliari's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
34%
2.91
32%
3.13
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Ascoli xG
Total xG
1.89
0.94
Cagliari xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 14.2 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.94 for Cagliari, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ascoli come into this having played 47 games, going 21W 11D 15L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 0.94 PPG from 47 outings (10W 14D 23L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ascoli's home form reads 8W 8D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.87 points per game from 23 outings (4W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 0.91 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 21W 11D 15L in their last 47 games (1.57 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 10W 14D 23L in their last 47 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Cagliari away?
Ascoli's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.39 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ascoli
0
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cagliari?
From 2 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Cagliari have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2023, when Cagliari 4-1 Ascoli.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 56%, Cagliari 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Ascoli) and 39% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Ascoli have failed to score in 26% of games; Cagliari in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Ascoli's recent matches and 44% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Ascoli's recent games and 39% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Cagliari tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ascoli edge out Cagliari 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Cagliari 2-1 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.95 xG and Cagliari 0.94 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ascoli beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.87 / defence 1.11 against Cagliari attack 0.75 / defence 0.82, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 34% | Draw 32% | Cagliari 34%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 40%, Cagliari 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.