Arezzo 1-4 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arezzo vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Arezzo and Sudtirol meet at Citta di Arezzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Arezzo (all games): 2W 0D 2L across 4 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 2.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.25 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Arezzo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Arezzo half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arezzo 50% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Arezzo 75% | Sudtirol 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arezzo 1.35 xG and Sudtirol 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arezzo attack 0.981 / defence 1.358 | Sudtirol attack 0.949 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.133. Data: 4 Arezzo games / 42 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arezzo 35% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 40%. Fair-value odds: Arezzo 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Sudtirol 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Arezzo 50% | Sudtirol 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arezzo vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Citta di Arezzo • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arezzo 35% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Arezzo 1.35 / Sudtirol 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Arezzo attack 0.981 / def 1.358 | Sudtirol attack 0.949 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Arezzo xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Sudtirol xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arezzo vs Sudtirol kick off?
Arezzo vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Citta di Arezzo.
What was the final score in Arezzo vs Sudtirol?
Arezzo 1 - 4 Sudtirol.
Where is Arezzo vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Citta di Arezzo.
What competition is Arezzo vs Sudtirol part of?
Arezzo vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Arezzo vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Arezzo a 35% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Arezzo and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Arezzo vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arezzo and Sudtirol in?
Arezzo (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.25 | L5 W-L-L-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Arezzo's attack rating (0.98) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.95x) against Arezzo's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
35%
2.88
26%
3.90
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Arezzo xG
Total xG
2.81
1.46
Sudtirol xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
8%
12.39
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arezzo vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Arezzo and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Arezzo and 1.46 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Arezzo vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arezzo come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 0D 2L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Arezzo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Arezzo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arezzo are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.25 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arezzo
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arezzo and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Arezzo have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
Have Arezzo or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arezzo have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Arezzo
0
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Sudtirol?
From 1 meetings on record, Arezzo have won 0, Sudtirol have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arezzo and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Arezzo 1-4 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Arezzo and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arezzo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sudtirol tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arezzo 50%, Sudtirol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Arezzo) and 0% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arezzo home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arezzo play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Arezzo's recent matches and 50% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arezzo vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Arezzo's recent games and 0% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arezzo and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Arezzo have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sudtirol run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Arezzo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Arezzo 1-4 at Citta di Arezzo, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arezzo 1.35 xG and Sudtirol 1.46 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sudtirol outscored their 1.46 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arezzo attack 0.98 / defence 1.36 against Sudtirol attack 0.95 / defence 1.01, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arezzo 35% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 40%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arezzo 75%, Sudtirol 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arezzo's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Arezzo shipped 4 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sudtirol scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.