Venezia vs Udinese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 11 as Venezia welcome Udinese to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Venezia — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's home record at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Udinese's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Venezia at 1.00 PPG versus Udinese's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Venezia have won 1, Udinese 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 2–3 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Udinese in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 53% versus Udinese 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 56% | Udinese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.32 xG and Udinese 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.720 / defence 1.303 | Udinese attack 1.240 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. Venezia's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Udinese have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Venezia games / 44 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 25% | Draw 22% | Udinese 53%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 4.00 | Draw 4.55 | Udinese 1.89. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. This conflicts with form data: Venezia 30% | Udinese 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Friday 6 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 25% | Draw 22% | Udinese 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Venezia 1.32 / Udinese 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.720 / def 1.303 | Udinese attack 1.240 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Udinese (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Udinese xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Udinese kick off?
Venezia vs Udinese is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Friday 6 November 2026 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Where is Venezia vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Udinese part of?
Venezia vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 25% chance of winning, Udinese a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Venezia and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Udinese?
Record (4 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 0 | Udinese 3W.
What form are Venezia and Udinese in?
Venezia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Udinese (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.72x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
25%
4.00
22%
4.63
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
0 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.32
2.00
Udinese xG
4.00
25%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
13%
7.42
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
3%
29.67
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Venezia and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Venezia and 2.00 for Udinese, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Venezia come into this having played 45 games, going 25W 10D 10L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.20 PPG from 45 outings (15W 9D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Venezia's home form reads 17W 0D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.36 points per game from 22 outings (9W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.20 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Udinese in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 25W 10D 10L in their last 45 games (1.89 PPG), while Udinese have gone 15W 9D 21L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Udinese away?
Venezia's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.32 PPG; Udinese away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Venezia or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Udinese in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Udinese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when Udinese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Venezia
0
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Udinese?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Udinese have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Udinese 3-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 36%, Udinese 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Venezia) and 59% (Udinese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Venezia's recent matches and 59% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Venezia's matches and 59% of Udinese's.
Do Venezia and Udinese tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Udinese in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.