Venezia 2-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Venezia and Genoa meet at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Venezia (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Genoa have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Venezia against 1.50 for Genoa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Venezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Genoa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Venezia lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Genoa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Genoa — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 57% versus Genoa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 67% | Genoa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.82 xG and Genoa 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.705 / defence 1.070 | Genoa attack 0.969 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.188. Venezia's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Venezia games / 42 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 21% | Draw 37% | Genoa 42%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 4.76 | Draw 2.70 | Genoa 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Venezia 60% | Genoa 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 21% | Draw 37% | Genoa 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Venezia 0.82 / Genoa 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.705 / def 1.070 | Genoa attack 0.969 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Genoa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Genoa xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Genoa kick off?
Venezia vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Genoa?
Venezia 2 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Venezia vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Genoa part of?
Venezia vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 21% chance of winning, Genoa a 42% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Venezia and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Genoa?
Record (4 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 2 | Genoa 2W.
What form are Venezia and Genoa in?
Venezia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Genoa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Venezia's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.97x) against Venezia's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
21%
4.78
37%
2.72
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.05
1.23
Genoa xG
4.78
21%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
6%
16.39
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 15.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Venezia and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Venezia and 1.23 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia's recent record stands at 22W 7D 13L from 42 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 14L across 42 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Venezia by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 14W 2D 4L from 20 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Genoa's away record stands at 5W 7D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.17 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Genoa in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 22W 7D 13L in their last 42 games (1.74 PPG), while Genoa have gone 13W 15D 14L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Genoa away?
Venezia's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.20 PPG; Genoa away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Venezia or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Genoa in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Venezia
2
Draws
3
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Genoa?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Genoa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2025, when Genoa 2-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 70%, Genoa 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Venezia) and 40% (Genoa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genoa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Venezia's games and 55% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Venezia's matches and 40% of Genoa's.
Do Venezia and Genoa tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Genoa in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Genoa 2-0 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.82 xG and Genoa 1.23 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genoa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.70 / defence 1.07 against Genoa attack 0.97 / defence 0.85, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 21% | Draw 37% | Genoa 42%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Venezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 67%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Genoa's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.