Udinese 0-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Parma at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Parma away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Udinese at 1.40 PPG versus Parma's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Udinese hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Parma, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Udinese winning.
The historical record gives Udinese a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Parma in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 51% versus Parma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 50% | Parma 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.06 xG and Parma 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.846 / defence 0.871 | Parma attack 0.793 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.160. Data: 70 Udinese games / 70 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 41% | Draw 32% | Parma 27%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Parma 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 40% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 41% | Draw 32% | Parma 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Udinese 1.06 / Parma 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.846 / def 0.871 | Parma attack 0.793 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Udinese (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Parma xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Parma kick off?
Udinese vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Parma?
Udinese 0 - 1 Parma.
Where is Udinese vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Parma part of?
Udinese vs Parma is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 41% chance of winning, Parma a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Udinese and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Parma?
Record (3 meetings): Udinese 3W | Draws 0 | Parma 0W.
What form are Udinese and Parma in?
Udinese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Parma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Udinese's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.14
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Udinese xG
Total xG
1.86
0.80
Parma xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Udinese and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Udinese and 0.80 for Parma, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 70 games, going 24W 15D 31L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.03 PPG from 70 outings (15W 27D 28L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.24 PPG, Parma on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 12W 8D 15L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.03 points per game from 35 outings (7W 15D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 0.96 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Parma in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 24W 15D 31L in their last 70 games (1.24 PPG), while Parma have gone 15W 27D 28L in their last 70 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Parma away?
Udinese's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.26 PPG; Parma away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Parma runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Udinese
0
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Udinese have won 3, Parma have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Parma?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Parma see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 43%, Parma 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Udinese) and 46% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Udinese keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Parma in 31%; Udinese have failed to score in 31% of games; Parma in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Udinese's recent matches and 51% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Udinese's recent games and 46% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Parma tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Parma in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat Udinese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Udinese 0-1 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.06 xG and Parma 0.80 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Udinese fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.85 / defence 0.87 against Parma attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 41% | Draw 32% | Parma 27%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 50%, Parma 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.24 PPG, Parma 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.