Udinese 2-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Monza at Dacia Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 April 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Udinese at Dacia Arena this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Monza have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Monza have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Udinese at 1.30 PPG versus Monza's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Udinese have won 1, Monza 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Monza in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 61% versus Monza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 54% | Monza 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.67 xG and Monza 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.191 / defence 1.116 | Monza attack 0.886 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.146. Data: 66 Udinese games / 28 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 50% | Draw 24% | Monza 26%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Monza 3.85. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 100% | Monza 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 50% | Draw 24% | Monza 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Udinese 1.67 / Monza 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.191 / def 1.116 | Monza attack 0.886 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Udinese (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Monza xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Monza kick off?
Udinese vs Monza kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Monza?
Udinese 2 - 2 Monza.
Where is Udinese vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Monza part of?
Udinese vs Monza is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 50% chance of winning, Monza a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Udinese and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 0 | Monza 0W.
What form are Udinese and Monza in?
Udinese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Monza (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (1.19) and Monza's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.12
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.80
1.13
Monza xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
5%
20.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Udinese and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Udinese and 1.13 for Monza, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 66 games, going 20W 25D 21L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.62 PPG from 66 outings (31W 14D 21L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.29 PPG, Monza on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 10W 14D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.34 points per game from 32 outings (12W 7D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.50 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Monza in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 20W 25D 21L in their last 66 games (1.29 PPG), while Monza have gone 31W 14D 21L in their last 66 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Monza away?
Udinese's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.38 PPG; Monza away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Udinese or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Monza in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Monza runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Monza specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Udinese
3
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Monza have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Udinese 1-2 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Monza?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 72%, Monza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Udinese) and 50% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Udinese's games and 50% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Udinese's recent games and 50% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Monza tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Monza in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Monza share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese and Monza finished level at 2-2 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.67 xG and Monza 1.13 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Monza outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.19 / defence 1.12 against Monza attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 50% | Draw 24% | Monza 26%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 54%, Monza 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.29 PPG, Monza 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.