Udinese 0-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Juventus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Udinese and Juventus meet at Dacia Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 June 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Udinese have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Udinese at Dacia Arena this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Udinese are significantly better at Dacia Arena than their overall form suggests.
Juventus's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Juventus have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Juventus arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Udinese, 2 for Juventus and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Juventus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 57% versus Juventus 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 53% | Juventus 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.40 xG and Juventus 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.100 / defence 0.933 | Juventus attack 0.934 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.177. Data: 75 Udinese games / 75 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 46% | Draw 27% | Juventus 28%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Juventus 3.57. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Juventus (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 70% | Juventus 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 46% | Draw 27% | Juventus 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Udinese 1.40 / Juventus 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.100 / def 0.933 | Juventus attack 0.934 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Udinese (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Juventus xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Juventus kick off?
Udinese vs Juventus kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Juventus?
Udinese 0 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Udinese vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Juventus part of?
Udinese vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 46% chance of winning, Juventus a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Udinese and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Juventus?
Record (3 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 1 | Juventus 2W.
What form are Udinese and Juventus in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Juventus (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Udinese's attack rating (1.10) and Juventus's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (0.93x) against Udinese's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
46%
2.20
27%
3.72
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.42
1.02
Juventus xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
7%
14.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Udinese and 1.02 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese's recent record stands at 22W 27D 26L from 75 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Juventus, meanwhile, have gone 41W 16D 18L across 75 games — 1.85 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juventus by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 12W 16D 9L from 37 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventus's away record stands at 18W 8D 11L across 37 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.49 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Juventus in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 22W 27D 26L in their last 75 games (1.24 PPG), while Juventus have gone 41W 16D 18L in their last 75 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.41 PPG; Juventus away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Udinese or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Juventus in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Juventus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 0-3 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
1
Draws
8
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Juventus have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 68%, Juventus 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Udinese) and 38% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Juventus in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Udinese's games and 49% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Udinese's recent games and 38% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Juventus tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Juventus in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Juventus defy the odds to beat Udinese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Udinese 0-1 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.40 xG and Juventus 1.02 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Udinese fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.10 / defence 0.93 against Juventus attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 46% | Draw 27% | Juventus 28%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Juventus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 53%, Juventus 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juventus's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.