Udinese 3-1 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 52%, yet in-form Inter provide a compelling counter-argument — this Udinese vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Inter travel to Dacia Arena to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Dacia Arena this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Inter — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Udinese register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Inter in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Udinese have won 0, Inter 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Inter winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Inter in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 59% versus Inter 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 57% | Inter 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.80 xG and Inter 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.174 / defence 0.774 | Inter attack 1.240 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.101. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 1.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Udinese's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Udinese games / 44 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 52% | Draw 28% | Inter 20%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Inter 5.00. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Inter (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 60% | Inter 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 52% | Draw 28% | Inter 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Udinese 1.80 / Inter 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.174 / def 0.774 | Inter attack 1.240 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Udinese (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Inter xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Inter kick off?
Udinese vs Inter kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Inter?
Udinese 3 - 1 Inter.
Where is Udinese vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Inter part of?
Udinese vs Inter is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 52% chance of winning, Inter a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Udinese and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Inter?
Record (2 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 0 | Inter 2W.
What form are Udinese and Inter in?
Udinese (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Inter (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Udinese's attack at 1.17x the league average against Inter's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.60
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.85
1.06
Inter xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
3%
30.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Udinese and 1.06 for Inter, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 15W 15D 14L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inter's form line: 29W 9D 6L from 44 games, 2.18 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Venue Form
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (8W 8D 6L).
On the road, Inter have gone 12W 6D 4L from 22 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.18 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Inter
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Inter in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 15D 14L in their last 44 games (1.36 PPG), while Inter have gone 29W 9D 6L in their last 44 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.45 PPG; Inter away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Udinese or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Inter in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Inter specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
0
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Inter have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 59%, Inter 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Udinese) and 64% (Inter). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Udinese's games and 68% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Udinese's matches and 64% of Inter's.
Do Udinese and Inter tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Inter in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Inter.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Inter 3-1 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.80 xG and Inter 1.06 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.17 / defence 0.77 against Inter attack 1.24 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 52% | Draw 28% | Inter 20%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 57%, Inter 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.