Udinese 1-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dacia Arena plays host to Udinese versus Hellas Verona in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Monday 30 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Udinese (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 3W 4D 3L at Dacia Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Udinese are significantly better at Dacia Arena than their overall form suggests.
Hellas Verona have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Hellas Verona have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Udinese against 0.70 for Hellas Verona. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Udinese have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Hellas Verona in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Udinese lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Udinese 61% and Hellas Verona 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 54% | Hellas Verona 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.43 xG and Hellas Verona 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.978 / defence 1.025 | Hellas Verona attack 0.788 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.192. Data: 57 Udinese games / 57 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 48% | Draw 27% | Hellas Verona 25%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Hellas Verona 4.00. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Udinese 70% | Hellas Verona 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Monday 30 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 48% | Draw 27% | Hellas Verona 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Udinese 1.43 / Hellas Verona 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.978 / def 1.025 | Hellas Verona attack 0.788 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Udinese (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Hellas Verona xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Udinese vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 30 January 2023 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Udinese 1 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Udinese vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Hellas Verona part of?
Udinese vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 48% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Udinese and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Hellas Verona?
Record (3 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 1 | Hellas Verona 1W.
What form are Udinese and Hellas Verona in?
Udinese (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Udinese's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.79x) against Udinese's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.71
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.39
0.96
Hellas Verona xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
6%
16.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Udinese and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Udinese and 0.96 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 57 games, going 18W 21D 18L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 1.14 PPG from 57 outings (17W 14D 26L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Udinese against 1.14 for Hellas Verona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 9W 11D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 0.93 points per game from 28 outings (5W 11D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Udinese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.44 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Hellas Verona in 70%.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 18W 21D 18L in their last 57 games (1.32 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 17W 14D 26L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Hellas Verona away?
Udinese's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.36 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hellas Verona won 4-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
5
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Hellas Verona 1-3 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Udinese, 71% for Hellas Verona — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Udinese) and 46% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Udinese's games and 71% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Udinese's recent games and 46% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese and Hellas Verona finished level at 1-1 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.43 xG and Hellas Verona 0.96 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against Hellas Verona attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 48% | Draw 27% | Hellas Verona 25%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 54%, Hellas Verona 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.32 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.