Udinese 0-0 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Como at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Como at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 3W 2D 5L at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Como have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Como's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Como's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Udinese's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Udinese have won 1, Como 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Como winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Como in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 53% versus Como 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 50% | Como 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.86 xG and Como 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.909 / defence 0.952 | Como attack 1.296 / defence 0.739. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.187. Como's defence strength of 0.739 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Como have an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 Udinese games / 68 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 22% | Draw 27% | Como 51%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Como 1.96. Como hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Como are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 40% | Como 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Como | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 22% | Draw 27% | Como 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Udinese 0.86 / Como 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.909 / def 0.952 | Como attack 1.296 / def 0.739 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Como (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Como xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Como kick off?
Udinese vs Como kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Como?
Udinese 0 - 0 Como.
Where is Udinese vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Como part of?
Udinese vs Como is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 22% chance of winning, Como a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Como?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Udinese and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Como?
Record (3 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 0 | Como 2W.
What form are Udinese and Como in?
Udinese (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Como (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.91x the league average against Como's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
22%
4.55
27%
3.76
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.32
1.46
Como xG
4.55
22%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
42%
2.35
Win to Nil
5%
19.66
22%
4.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 14.4 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Udinese and Como expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Udinese and 1.46 for Como, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 23W 14D 31L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Como's form line: 29W 19D 20L from 68 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.22 PPG, Como on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.21 PPG from 33 outings (11W 7D 15L).
On the road, Como have gone 12W 9D 12L from 33 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.50 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Como
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Como in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 23W 14D 31L in their last 68 games (1.22 PPG), while Como have gone 29W 19D 20L in their last 68 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.21 PPG; Como away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Udinese or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Como in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Como runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2025, when Como won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Como specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Udinese
2
Draws
2
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Como?
From 5 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Como have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Como last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Udinese 1-1 Como.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 42%, Como 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Udinese) and 46% (Como).
On the defensive side: Udinese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Udinese have failed to score in 30% of games; Como in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Udinese's recent matches and 46% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Udinese's recent games and 46% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Como tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Como in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Udinese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese and Como finished level at 0-0 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 0.86 xG and Como 1.46 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Udinese fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Como landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against Como attack 1.30 / defence 0.74, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 22% | Draw 27% | Como 51%, with Como to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 50%, Como 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Como's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.22 PPG, Como 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Como (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.