Torino 0-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Torino at 38%, yet in-form Bologna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Torino vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 17 as Torino welcome Bologna to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Torino — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino's home record at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Torino are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bologna have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Bologna's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Torino's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Torino, 2 for Bologna and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Torino in-play and half-time data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Bologna in-play and half-time data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 36% versus Bologna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Torino 34% | Bologna 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.29 xG and Bologna 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.804 / defence 0.842 | Bologna attack 1.115 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.323. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Torino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Torino games / 53 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 38% | Draw 27% | Bologna 36%. Fair-value odds: Torino 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Torino at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bologna (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Torino 40% | Bologna 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 38% | Draw 27% | Bologna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Torino 1.29 / Bologna 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.804 / def 0.842 | Bologna attack 1.115 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Torino (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Bologna xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Bologna kick off?
Torino vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Bologna?
Torino 0 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Torino vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Bologna part of?
Torino vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 38% chance of winning, Bologna a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Torino and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Bologna?
Record (6 meetings): Torino 2W | Draws 2 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Torino and Bologna in?
Torino (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Bologna (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Torino's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
38%
2.66
27%
3.73
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Torino xG
Total xG
2.53
1.24
Bologna xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Torino and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Torino and 1.24 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Torino come into this having played 53 games, going 18W 17D 18L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.75 PPG from 53 outings (24W 21D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Torino — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Torino's home form reads 10W 10D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.48 points per game from 25 outings (9W 10D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Torino are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.42 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Torino have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Bologna in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Bologna in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 18W 17D 18L in their last 53 games (1.34 PPG), while Bologna have gone 24W 21D 8L in their last 53 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Bologna away?
Torino's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.60 PPG; Bologna away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Torino or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Bologna in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Torino and Bologna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Torino's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Torino
3
Draws
5
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 2, Bologna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Torino 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Torino see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 28%, Bologna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Torino) and 64% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 44% of games; Bologna in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Torino's recent matches and 60% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Torino's recent games and 64% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Bologna tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Bologna in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Torino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Torino 0-2 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.29 xG and Bologna 1.24 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Torino fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.80 / defence 0.84 against Bologna attack 1.11 / defence 1.21, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 38% | Draw 27% | Bologna 36%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 34%, Bologna 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bologna's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.