Sassuolo 0-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sassuolo at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Sampdoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Sassuolo versus Sampdoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 29 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Sassuolo (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 Serie A fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sampdoria have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Serie A outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Sassuolo. A 3.00 PPG lead over Sampdoria (3.00 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.50 xG and Sampdoria 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.960 / defence 1.150 | Sampdoria attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.380. Data: 1 Sassuolo games / 1 Sampdoria games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 41% | Draw 25% | Sampdoria 34%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Sampdoria 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 41% | Draw 25% | Sampdoria 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Sassuolo 1.50 / Sampdoria 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.960 / def 1.150 | Sampdoria attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Sampdoria xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Sampdoria kick off?
Sassuolo vs Sampdoria kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Sampdoria?
Sassuolo 0 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Sassuolo vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Sampdoria part of?
Sassuolo vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 41% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sassuolo and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Sampdoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sassuolo and Sampdoria in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W. Sampdoria (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sassuolo's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.85x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
41%
2.44
25%
4.01
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.85
1.35
Sampdoria xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.35 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sassuolo come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sampdoria sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sassuolo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sassuolo are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Sassuolo's scoring rate against Sampdoria's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Sampdoria in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sampdoria won 4-0 on 6 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sassuolo
3
Draws
2
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Sampdoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 1, Sampdoria have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Sampdoria 0-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 0% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Sassuolo's recent games and 0% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sassuolo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 2, as Sassuolo and Sampdoria drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.50 xG and Sampdoria 1.35 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sassuolo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sampdoria landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Sampdoria attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 41% | Draw 25% | Sampdoria 34%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 100%, Sampdoria 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sassuolo managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.