Sassuolo 1-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bologna at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Bologna encounter.

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Analysis

Bologna make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Sassuolo in Serie A (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

Sassuolo (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Sassuolo have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Bologna's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Bologna's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Bologna arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Sassuolo's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) — Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bologna in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Sassuolo, 2 for Bologna and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 May 2023, ended Sassuolo 1–1 Bologna — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 55% versus Bologna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 55% | Bologna 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sassuolo surrender their half-time lead 53% of the time, while Bologna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.13 xG and Bologna 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.999 / defence 1.189 | Bologna attack 1.006 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.154. Data: built from Sassuolo's last 47 games and Bologna's last 47.

Result probabilities: Sassuolo 30% | Draw 28% | Bologna 42%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 3.36 | Draw 3.53 | Bologna 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sassuolo 60% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 70% (last 10 away games).

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