Sampdoria 0-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Udinese meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 January 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sampdoria have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 1W 2D 7L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Udinese (all games): 0W 6D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sampdoria lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 46% versus Udinese 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 54% | Udinese 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 0.77 xG and Udinese 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.611 / defence 1.229 | Udinese attack 0.997 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.134. Sampdoria's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Sampdoria games / 56 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 21% | Draw 28% | Udinese 52%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Udinese 1.92. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 30% | Udinese 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 21% | Draw 28% | Udinese 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Sampdoria 0.77 / Udinese 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.611 / def 1.229 | Udinese attack 0.997 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Udinese (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Udinese xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Udinese kick off?
Sampdoria vs Udinese kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Udinese?
Sampdoria 0 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Sampdoria vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Udinese part of?
Sampdoria vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 21% chance of winning, Udinese a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sampdoria and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Udinese?
Record (2 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 1 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Udinese in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Udinese (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (1.00x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
21%
4.83
28%
3.62
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.16
1.39
Udinese xG
4.83
21%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
5%
19.39
24%
4.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 16.1 | 11.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.39 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 12W 9D 35L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 17W 21D 18L from 56 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Udinese are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 0.82 PPG from 28 outings (6W 5D 17L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 8W 10D 10L from 28 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.55 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Udinese in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 12W 9D 35L in their last 56 games (0.80 PPG), while Udinese have gone 17W 21D 18L in their last 56 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.82 PPG; Udinese away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Udinese have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
1
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Udinese?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Udinese have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2023, when Udinese 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 54%, Udinese 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Sampdoria) and 57% (Udinese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 36% of games; Udinese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sampdoria's games and 57% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Sampdoria's matches and 57% of Udinese's.
Do Sampdoria and Udinese tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Udinese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Sampdoria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Sampdoria 0-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.77 xG and Udinese 1.39 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.61 / defence 1.23 against Udinese attack 1.00 / defence 0.87, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 21% | Draw 28% | Udinese 52%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 54%, Udinese 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Udinese's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Udinese arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.