Salernitana 0-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Salernitana take on Torino.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 31 as Salernitana welcome Torino to Stadio Arechi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salernitana stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Arechi, Salernitana have gone 0W 4D 6L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Torino — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Torino's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Salernitana 0.80 PPG, Torino 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Salernitana, 1 for Torino and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 0–4 with Torino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Salernitana in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Torino in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 46% versus Torino 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 61% | Torino 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 0.99 xG and Torino 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.859 / defence 1.513 | Torino attack 0.540 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.260. Data: 28 Salernitana games / 29 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 31% | Draw 35% | Torino 33%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Torino 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 50% | Torino 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 31% | Draw 35% | Torino 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Salernitana 0.99 / Torino 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.859 / def 1.513 | Torino attack 0.540 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Torino xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Torino kick off?
Salernitana vs Torino kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Torino?
Salernitana 0 - 1 Torino.
Where is Salernitana vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Torino part of?
Salernitana vs Torino is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 31% chance of winning, Torino a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Salernitana and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Torino?
Record (1 meetings): Salernitana 0W | Draws 0 | Torino 1W.
What form are Salernitana and Torino in?
Salernitana (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Torino (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (0.86) and Torino's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.19
35%
2.83
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.02
1.03
Torino xG
3.19
31%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.03 for Torino, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salernitana's recent record stands at 3W 7D 18L from 28 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 11L across 28 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Torino by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Salernitana have managed 1W 5D 8L from 14 games — 0.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Torino's away record stands at 2W 4D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Torino's season.
The Goals Picture
Salernitana are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 2.32 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.18 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Current Season
Torino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Torino in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 3W 7D 18L in their last 28 games (0.57 PPG), while Torino have gone 9W 8D 11L in their last 28 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Torino away?
Torino's away record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.57 PPG; Torino away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salernitana and Torino runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Torino won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Salernitana's record when hosting Torino specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Salernitana
3
Draws
3
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Torino?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 0, Torino have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Torino 0-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Torino see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 43%, Torino 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Salernitana) and 14% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 50% of games; Torino in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Salernitana's recent matches and 36% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Salernitana's recent games and 14% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Torino tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Torino in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Torino edge out Salernitana 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Salernitana 0-1 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 0.99 xG and Torino 1.03 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Salernitana fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.86 / defence 1.51 against Torino attack 0.54 / defence 1.07, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 31% | Draw 35% | Torino 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Torino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 61%, Torino 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Torino's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Torino arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line. Torino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.