Salernitana 2-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Salernitana and Fiorentina meet at Stadio Arechi in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 April 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Salernitana have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Salernitana at Stadio Arechi this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Arechi this season.
Fiorentina (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Fiorentina are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Salernitana, 1 for Fiorentina and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 0–4 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Salernitana — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 47% versus Fiorentina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 59% | Fiorentina 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.11 xG and Fiorentina 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.818 / defence 1.495 | Fiorentina attack 0.936 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.257. Fiorentina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Salernitana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Salernitana games / 32 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 23% | Draw 26% | Fiorentina 51%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Fiorentina 1.96. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 40% | Fiorentina 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 23% | Draw 26% | Fiorentina 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Salernitana 1.11 / Fiorentina 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.818 / def 1.495 | Fiorentina attack 0.936 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Fiorentina xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Fiorentina kick off?
Salernitana vs Fiorentina kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Fiorentina?
Salernitana 2 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Salernitana vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Fiorentina part of?
Salernitana vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 23% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Salernitana and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Fiorentina?
Record (1 meetings): Salernitana 0W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Salernitana and Fiorentina in?
Salernitana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 0.82x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.94x) against Salernitana's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
23%
4.40
26%
3.82
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.87
1.76
Fiorentina xG
4.40
23%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
4%
25.51
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.76 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Salernitana have picked up 0.69 PPG on a 5W 7D 20L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Fiorentina's form line: 17W 5D 10L from 32 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Fiorentina are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Salernitana have posted 0.53 PPG from 15 outings (1W 5D 9L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 6W 3D 6L from 15 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Salernitana are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 2.16 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.66 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 5W 7D 20L in their last 32 games (0.69 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 17W 5D 10L in their last 32 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.53 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Fiorentina have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 4-0 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salernitana have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Salernitana
1
Draws
4
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Fiorentina?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 1, Fiorentina have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Salernitana 0-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 40%, Fiorentina 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Salernitana) and 53% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 53% of games; Fiorentina in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Salernitana's recent matches and 67% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Salernitana's recent games and 53% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Fiorentina 2-1 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.11 xG and Fiorentina 1.76 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Salernitana beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.82 / defence 1.50 against Fiorentina attack 0.94 / defence 1.31, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 23% | Draw 26% | Fiorentina 51%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Salernitana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 59%, Fiorentina 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.