Salernitana 0-4 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Salernitana at 39%, yet in-form AS Roma provide a compelling counter-argument — this Salernitana vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 2 as Salernitana welcome AS Roma to Stadio Arechi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Salernitana have gone 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Salernitana have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Serie A fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AS Roma are 3.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.38 xG and AS Roma 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.960 / defence 1.150 | AS Roma attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.334. Data: 1 Salernitana games / 1 AS Roma games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Salernitana 39% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 35%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | AS Roma 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salernitana at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AS Roma (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salernitana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 39% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Salernitana 1.38 / AS Roma 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.960 / def 1.150 | AS Roma attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.30
AS Roma xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs AS Roma kick off?
Salernitana vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs AS Roma?
Salernitana 0 - 4 AS Roma.
Where is Salernitana vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs AS Roma part of?
Salernitana vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 39% chance of winning, AS Roma a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Salernitana and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and AS Roma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salernitana and AS Roma in?
Salernitana (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. AS Roma (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (0.96) and AS Roma's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
39%
2.57
26%
3.87
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.69
1.30
AS Roma xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
9%
11.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Salernitana and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.30 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Salernitana have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Salernitana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
Goals in Recent Form
Salernitana are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 3.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Salernitana's scoring rate against AS Roma's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Salernitana have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; AS Roma in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when AS Roma won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Salernitana's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Salernitana
2
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and AS Roma?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 0, AS Roma have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2024, when Salernitana 1-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Salernitana's games and 100% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salernitana vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Salernitana's matches and 100% of AS Roma's.
Do Salernitana and AS Roma tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Salernitana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Salernitana 0-4 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.38 xG and AS Roma 1.30 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Salernitana fell 1.4 short of their projected output. AS Roma outscored their 1.30 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against AS Roma attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 39% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 35%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual AS Roma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 100%, AS Roma 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Salernitana managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma scored 4 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.