Parma 0-0 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Napoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Napoli at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A (matchday 37). Kick-off is Sunday 18 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Parma — last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Parma's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Napoli have recorded 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Napoli have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Napoli — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Parma's games and 60% of Napoli's (from Parma's last 10 home games and Napoli's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Parma, 1 for Napoli and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Parma 1–2 Napoli — a Napoli win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Parma trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Napoli trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 64% versus Napoli 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 53% | Napoli 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.89 xG and Napoli 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.947 / defence 1.153 | Napoli attack 1.066 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.147. Napoli bring a tight defence (rating 0.775, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Parma's projected output down. Data: built from Parma's last 36 games and Napoli's last 74.
Result probabilities: Parma 23% | Draw 29% | Napoli 49%. Fair-value odds: Parma 4.36 | Draw 3.51 | Napoli 2.06. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Parma 60% (last 10 home games) | Napoli 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 37 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 23% | Draw 29% | Napoli 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Parma 0.89 / Napoli 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.947 / def 1.153 | Napoli attack 1.066 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Napoli (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Napoli xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Napoli FAQs
What time does Parma vs Napoli kick off?
Parma vs Napoli kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Napoli?
Parma 0 - 0 Napoli.
Where is Parma vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Napoli part of?
Parma vs Napoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 37) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 23% chance of winning, Napoli a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Parma and Napoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Parma vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Parma's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Napoli's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 36 games and Napoli's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
23%
4.36
29%
3.51
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Parma xG
Total xG
2.30
1.41
Napoli xG
4.36
23%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
6%
17.87
20%
5.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.2 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Napoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Parma and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Parma and 1.41 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma come into this having played 74 games, going 27W 27D 20L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 1.77 PPG from 74 outings (36W 23D 15L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.46 PPG, Napoli on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Parma's home form reads 16W 12D 9L across their last 37 home games, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 1.73 points per game from their last 37 away games (17W 13D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.51 scored and 1.01 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
Parma (Home) vs Napoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
❓ Parma vs Napoli Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Napoli in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 27W 27D 20L in their last 74 games (1.46 PPG), while Napoli have gone 36W 23D 15L in their last 74 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.62 PPG; Napoli away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Parma or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Napoli in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 12 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Parma's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Parma
3
Draws
1
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Napoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Napoli?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 0, Napoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Napoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2026: Parma 1-1 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 68%, Napoli 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Parma) and 46% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 35%; Napoli in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Napoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Napoli matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Parma's games and 49% of Napoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Parma and Napoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Parma's recent games and 46% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Napoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Parma's recent matches and 70% of Napoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Parma's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 37, as Parma and Napoli drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.89 xG and Napoli 1.41 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Parma fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Napoli landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Napoli attack 1.07 / defence 0.78, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 23% | Draw 29% | Napoli 49%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 53%, Napoli 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Napoli's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.46 PPG, Napoli 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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