Parma 1-4 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Juventus travel to Stadio Ennio Tardini to take on Parma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Juventus — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Juventus have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Juventus are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Parma, 1 for Juventus and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Juventus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Juventus in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 55% versus Juventus 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 47% | Juventus 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.67 xG and Juventus 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.667 / defence 0.953 | Juventus attack 0.978 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.148. Parma's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Parma games / 60 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 23% | Draw 33% | Juventus 45%. Fair-value odds: Parma 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Juventus 2.22. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Parma's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 30% | Juventus 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 23% | Draw 33% | Juventus 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Parma 0.67 / Juventus 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.667 / def 0.953 | Juventus attack 0.978 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Juventus (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Juventus xG
32%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Juventus kick off?
Parma vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Juventus?
Parma 1 - 4 Juventus.
Where is Parma vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Juventus part of?
Parma vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 23% chance of winning, Juventus a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Parma and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Juventus?
Record (3 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 1 | Juventus 1W.
What form are Parma and Juventus in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Juventus (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Parma's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Juventus's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
23%
4.41
33%
3.05
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Parma xG
Total xG
1.74
1.07
Juventus xG
4.41
23%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.10
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
8%
12.86
23%
4.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 18.7 | 10.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Parma and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Parma and 1.07 for Juventus, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Parma have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 12W 23D 25L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus's form line: 30W 22D 8L from 60 games, 1.87 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Juventus are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Parma.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.03 PPG from 30 outings (7W 10D 13L).
On the road, Juventus have gone 12W 11D 7L from 30 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.55 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Juventus in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 12W 23D 25L in their last 60 games (0.98 PPG), while Juventus have gone 30W 22D 8L in their last 60 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.03 PPG; Juventus away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Parma or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Juventus in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Juventus runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2026, when Juventus won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Parma's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Parma
1
Draws
3
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Juventus?
From 5 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Juventus have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Juventus 2-0 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 57%, Juventus 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Parma) and 37% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Juventus in 33%; Parma have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Parma's recent matches and 50% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Parma's recent games and 37% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Juventus tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Juventus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Juventus run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Parma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Parma 1-4 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.67 xG and Juventus 1.07 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Juventus outscored their 1.07 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.67 / defence 0.95 against Juventus attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 23% | Draw 33% | Juventus 45%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 47%, Juventus 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Juventus's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Parma (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juventus (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.