Parma 2-3 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Parma face Hellas Verona.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Hellas Verona at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 15 December 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Parma — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Parma's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Hellas Verona have recorded 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Hellas Verona have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Parma) versus 0.60 (Hellas Verona). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Parma's games and 60% of Hellas Verona's (from Parma's last 10 home games and Hellas Verona's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Parma 68% and Hellas Verona 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 55% | Hellas Verona 58%). Note also that Hellas Verona surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Parma recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 54% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.81 xG and Hellas Verona 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.029 / defence 1.218 | Hellas Verona attack 0.795 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.310. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.303 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Parma's projected output up. Hellas Verona's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.27. Parma's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hellas Verona's projected output up. Data: built from Parma's last 15 games and Hellas Verona's last 53.
Result probabilities: Parma 50% | Draw 23% | Hellas Verona 27%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.00 | Draw 4.34 | Hellas Verona 3.72. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Parma's last 10 home games and Hellas Verona's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 80% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 50% | Draw 23% | Hellas Verona 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Parma 1.81 / Hellas Verona 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.029 / def 1.218 | Hellas Verona attack 0.795 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Parma (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Hellas Verona xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Hellas Verona FAQs
What time does Parma vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Parma vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Hellas Verona?
Parma 2 - 3 Hellas Verona.
Where is Parma vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Hellas Verona part of?
Parma vs Hellas Verona is a Serie A fixture (matchday 16) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 50% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Parma and Hellas Verona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Parma vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Parma's attack at 1.03x the league average against Hellas Verona's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 15 games and Hellas Verona's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
50%
2.00
23%
4.34
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Parma xG
Total xG
3.08
1.27
Hellas Verona xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
4%
22.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Hellas Verona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Parma and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Parma and 1.27 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma's recent record stands at 24W 19D 10L from 53 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 29L across 53 games — 0.94 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Parma have managed 12W 9D 5L from their last 26 home games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hellas Verona's away record stands at 4W 5D 17L across their last 26 away games, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.06 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
Parma (Home) vs Hellas Verona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Parma vs Hellas Verona Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 24W 19D 10L in their last 53 games (1.72 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 13W 11D 29L in their last 53 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Hellas Verona away?
Parma's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.73 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Parma's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
1
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Hellas Verona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Hellas Verona?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 2, Hellas Verona have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Parma and Hellas Verona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: Parma 2-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Hellas Verona?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 73%, Hellas Verona 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Parma) and 46% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Hellas Verona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Hellas Verona matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Parma's games and 50% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Parma and Hellas Verona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Parma's recent games and 46% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Hellas Verona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Parma's recent matches and 62% of Hellas Verona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Parma 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Parma 2-3 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.81 xG and Hellas Verona 1.27 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hellas Verona outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.03 / defence 1.22 against Hellas Verona attack 0.80 / defence 1.30, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 50% | Draw 23% | Hellas Verona 27%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Hellas Verona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 55%, Hellas Verona 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Parma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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