Parma vs Fiorentina – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Parma at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 15 as Parma welcome Fiorentina to Stadio Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 December 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Parma have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Ennio Tardini — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Parma) versus 1.30 (Fiorentina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Parma, 0 for Fiorentina and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 38% versus Fiorentina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 28% | Fiorentina 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.28 xG and Fiorentina 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.842 / defence 0.984 | Fiorentina attack 0.896 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Fiorentina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Parma games / 40 Fiorentina games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Parma 41% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 32%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Fiorentina 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 0.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Parma 50% | Fiorentina 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 41% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Parma 1.28 / Fiorentina 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.842 / def 0.984 | Fiorentina attack 0.896 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Parma (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fiorentina xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Fiorentina kick off?
Parma vs Fiorentina is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Where is Parma vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Fiorentina part of?
Parma vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 41% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Parma and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Fiorentina?
Record (4 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 3 | Fiorentina 0W.
What form are Parma and Fiorentina in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.84) and Fiorentina's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.60
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Parma xG
Total xG
2.37
1.09
Fiorentina xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
9%
11.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Parma and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Parma and 1.09 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Parma have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 11W 12D 17L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fiorentina's form line: 9W 15D 16L from 40 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.12 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 5W 6D 9L from 20 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.02 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Fiorentina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 9W 15D 16L in their last 40 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Fiorentina away?
Parma's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.05 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Parma or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Parma's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Parma
3
Draws
0
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Fiorentina?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Fiorentina have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Fiorentina 0-0 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Fiorentina?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 45%, Fiorentina 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Parma) and 60% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 40% of games; Fiorentina in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Parma's recent matches and 50% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Parma's recent games and 60% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.